Forget the single net target – the government should adopt an annual migration plan
(Karl Black / Alamy Stock Photo)
3 min read
Last month’s immigration white paper saw a renewed emphasis on linking migration policy with labour market policy. This is welcome, but the government should go further – and adopt an annual migration plan.
This would see the Home Secretary publish an annual, cross-departmental plan for the needs in our economy and public services. It would both ensure there is a joined-up approach to migration policy and help restore the public’s trust in our system.
Under the previous government, the combination of stagnant growth and an open borders experiment of mass migration left much of the economy unsustainably dependent on cheap foreign labour. At the same time, millions have been locked out of the labour market, increasing the welfare bill exponentially.
The last Conservative government oversaw record net migration figures – almost a million in a year by 2023 – despite promising control and reductions. This was a key reason for their defeat at the last election and was the consequence of any sensible and coherent long-term plan for immigration for the needs of our labour market and to support our public services. This needs to change.
The measures set out in the government’s recent immigration white paper will begin to end this country’s unhealthy dependence on cheap foreign labour combined with further investment in skills across the country. But now is the time for the government to look again at an annual migration plan, endorsed by think tanks from across the political spectrum and the respected Institute for Government.
Akin to a budget, this would be a multi-year forecast of the labour needs of the economy and public services, and how different migration routes should be eased or tightened in response. Such a plan would ask each department to set out their expectations and needs across their sector. It would be a crucial tool in ensuring there is a coherent and realistic agenda on immigration across Whitehall.
It would also improve our national and political conversation about immigration – and how to use it as a weapon in our nation’s economic armoury. Fixation by policymakers on a single net migration target has been self-defeating. A single target, often plucked out of the need for a political headline without any evidence or research, has proved disastrous, as the government is then required to urgently to ramp up migration to fill holes in our economy. That the Tories continue to call for an arbitrary ‘cap’ reveals their continued unseriousness on the topic. Instead, we need a proper plan.
There is also a political imperative. While voters support bringing down net migration from the unprecedented highs under the Tories – and that will be achieved by this government – they also seek control. There are understandable concerns about the impact on the care sector, universities and our events economy of the reduction in immigration. A public plan would offer assurances that migration can be controlled appropriately without economic damage and also shift the conversation from blunt numbers to how migration actually affects our nation.
The UK can look at international examples of annual migration plans to see their effectiveness. In Australia and Canada, for example, migration budgets mediate between different multi-year policy priorities and model the impact of migration on tax receipts. The Australian government has recently moved to a four-year cycle to better integrate housing targets.
Our government is right to be ending the economy’s unhealthy reliance on cheap foreign labour. There is an opportunity now to go further, setting out how this trajectory will continue across the Parliament. An annual migration plan would help the government be strategic about its objectives – and better engage with the public on the cost of migration, and its benefits.
Jake Richards is Labour MP for Rother Valley
