The fall of Orbán is an opportunity – we must ensure it is seized
Milorad Dodik with Viktor Orbán in 2023 (Associated Press/Alamy)
4 min read
The fall of Viktor Orbán is good news not only for the EU but for the western Balkans, and for Bosnia and Herzegovina in particular.
For years, Orbán served as a key external patron of Milorad Dodik, the pro-Kremlin strongman of Bosnia’s Republika Srpska entity. Dodik’s project has been consistent: to weaken Bosnia’s central institutions, render the state unworkable and ultimately pursue secession and unification with Serbia. His alignment with Moscow is not incidental. It reflects a deliberate strategy to exploit geopolitical division while insulating himself from legal and democratic constraint.
This has gone hand in hand with persistent historical revisionism, including denial of the Srebrenica genocide, and the steady erosion of post-war reconciliation.
Hungary under Orbán provided political cover, diplomatic protection and material support, shielding Dodik from coordinated international pressure. Orbán’s departure removes one of the most significant external enablers of that strategy.
Bosnia remains one of Europe’s most fragile political systems. The Dayton agreement ended the war but left Bosnia vulnerable to secessionism, which Dodik and his allies have repeatedly exploited – through not only rhetoric but sustained efforts to weaken the state’s legal and institutional foundations.
Hungary’s role made it an outlier in the EU, diluting collective responses and signalling that secessionism could still find allies inside the union. Orbán’s fall therefore disrupts a network of support that has sustained destabilising actors across the region. That dynamic is not confined to Central Europe.
Britain, to its credit, has taken a firm line. In 2022, our government imposed sanctions on Dodik and his associates, including travel bans and asset freezes, after concluding that he was actively undermining Bosnia’s constitutional order. Those measures have been maintained.
Yet there is an uncomfortable development at home. Two former British ambassadors are now registered under the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme as lobbyists for the Republika Srpska entity. Their stated aim is “to open and develop a new, discreet channel of communications”. In practice, such efforts risk granting a sanctioned leadership precisely what it seeks: access, legitimacy and a gradual erosion of political isolation.
This is not simply dialogue. It is an attempt to recast a secessionist agenda as a negotiable political position. Engaging former diplomats serves that aim, softening Dodik’s image abroad without any change in his conduct.
The timing is awkward. As the Rycroft Review makes clear, “This country faces a persistent problem of foreign interests seeking to exert influence on, and to interfere in, our politics.” Against that backdrop, any suggestion of allowing sanctioned actors indirect access to UK political networks sits, to put it mildly, uncomfortably with the review’s conclusions and risks sending the wrong signal.
Orbán’s fall disrupts a network of support that has sustained destabilising actors across the region
The United States offers a cautionary example. Mr Dodik courted associates of Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election and employed lobbyists who reframed his agenda as a defence of “Christian values” and a rejection of liberal internationalism. The strategy proved effective. In October 2025, the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Dodik, his family and dozens of associates without public explanation or any apparent concessions. In doing so, Washington strengthened forces that Moscow has long supported in its efforts to weaken Dayton and destabilise Europe from within.
The lesson for Britain is clear. Sustained lobbying in this context is not a good-faith effort at engagement but a strategy to wear down political resolve. Sanctions are intended to impose real costs, not to be diluted through informal access or elite advocacy. Weakening that stance would not be pragmatic. It would validate a strategy built on obstruction and coercion, with consequences for a state whose stability remains hard-won.
Orbán’s departure creates a rare strategic opening. The UK and its EU partners should use it to reinforce, not relax, pressure on those who would unravel Bosnia’s post-war order, for the sake of the stability in the region and wider European peace.
Baroness Helic is a Conservative peer
