Preventative measures: UK support for a democratic and peaceful Bosnia
5 min read
There are no shortages of armed conflicts or atrocity crimes around the world. The number of armed conflicts has almost doubled since 2008, and one in five countries has either experienced atrocity crimes or is at the serious risk of them.
This dire predicament, the worst since the Second World War, is amplified by the fact that three of the five permanent UN Security Council members are resiling from institutions designed to peaceably resolve disputes or ensure accountability for crimes, such as the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court, or are working to undermine the legal norms and values that underpin them.
It is in this lamentable context that leading international lawyers and cross-party parliamentarians in the UK came together in July 2025, in Parliament, to launch the Standing Group on Atrocity Crimes. The Group seeks to practically realise an alternative vision: that the UK, and perhaps other democratic states, develop comprehensive atrocity prevention and response frameworks by “bringing home” existing international legal obligations, many of which stem from the instruments negotiated shortly after 1945.
The primary reason for the proliferation of conflicts and atrocity crimes has been a lack of enforcement of international law at domestic level – the UK, for instance, still does not criminalise the crime of aggression, nor does it believe it has a duty to determine the serious risk of genocide and prevent it from occurring until, perversely, an international court has made a determination (that genocide has already happened!) As such, the Standing Group is concerned with creating general legislation and policies applicable to any situation where the UK has an international obligation to act and is not currently doing so.
It may, therefore, come as some surprise that the limited capacity and discretion the Standing Group has to intervene in specific situations where there is a threat to international peace and security and the risk of atrocity crimes has been exercised first and foremost in respect of Bosnia.
On 16 Oct 2025, the Group published a special briefing on the critical threats facing Bosnia – from ethno-nationalist separatists within and Russian-supported interference from without – and the steps the UK Government should immediately take to reaffirm the rule of law and maintain the peace consistent with the Dayton Peace Agreement of 14 Dec 1995, and supportive of our friend and ally.
These steps are concerned with deterring and preventing instability, which could lead to the recurrence of conflict and, if so, relatedly atrocity crimes, such as: maintaining combat capable forces, supporting nascent peace-building initiatives to address issues like dehumanisation, gender-based violence, and institutional paralysis; and assisting participatory constitutional reform in Bosnia. This is more salient considering that this year marks 30 years since the Srebrenica genocide, the first in Europe since the Holocaust, as well as 30 years since the imperfect peace negotiated at Dayton.
There is a moment here for the UK for a low-cost but high-return intervention, especially because it is an effective guarantor of the Dayton Peace Agreement. Reflective of the UK’s long-standing engagement with Bosnia, on 22 October 2025, the UK Government will host the London Leaders’ Summit for the six Western Balkans States plus European partners, under the Berlin Process, which is expressly concerned with security. Furthermore, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold its semi-annual debate on Bosnia in early November 2025 where the main agenda item will be the vote to reauthorise the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR Althea). Discussions are also expected to focus on the country's political situation, particularly regarding the Office of the High Representative (OHR) and its continued mandate. Russia is being heavily lobbied by ethno-nationalist separatists in Bosnia to veto the mandates of both EUFOR and the OHR.
Prevention is the operative term for the work of the Standing Group; to see off threats before there are victims, forcibly displaced people seeking refuge, instability and conflict, and economic harm – all of which is a net cost to the UK, curtailing our policy choices. As the Chair of the Group, Baroness Kennedy LT KC, suggests: “there are real, practical and meaningful ways to ensure the UK takes the lead internationally on atrocity prevention and response while at the same time retains discretion over its foreign, economic or other policy. These can coexist in harmony.”
The UK does indeed have cards to play as: the sixth richest economy in the world; one of the five permanent UN Security Council members; the sixth top global military power; and a well-respected interlocutor with global reach in diplomatic affairs. Our democratic friends and allies in Bosnia should be able to count on us playing our hand carefully, even if, sparingly to support them. In Bosnia, we not only have a legal basis and obligation to act, especially when the early warning signs have been highlighted, but one reinforced by a moral responsibility given the acute failures to prevent in our most recent past.
Aarif Abraham, Barrister at Doughty Street Chambers, acts as Co-Convener for the Standing Group on Atrocity Crimes. He is the Co-Author of the Policy Briefing on Bosnia entitled “Critical Preventative Measures” published on 16 July 2025 together with Dr Valery Perry and Dr Kurt Bassuener.
