Can we learn from the past and hedge against risk?

The first report, 'Future risk: Learning from history', begins with a discussion of some of the key trends over the last century, and the important lessons that can be learned from a careful historical analysis. It also contains some preliminary findings from a global opinion poll into the public's perceptions of future risks.

The report discusses the trends that have occurred in socioeconomics, demographics, environment and energy and technology before analysing preliminary results of its global opinion poll.

The poll questioned members of the public from five countries, Australia, Brazil, Great Britain (GB), India and the United States on their current view towards emerging risks.

The findings from the poll suggested a divergence of opinion between developing and developed countries surveyed. The developed countries were more likely to be concerned about economic decline and rising income inequality, whereas the developing countries surveyed were concerned about overpopulation and fresh water shortages.

Asked a general question about their optimism for the future, respondents from GB were overwhelmingly the most pessimistic, with only 36 per cent of respondents optimistic about their long-term future. Whereas 88 per cent of Indians surveyed are optimistic about their long-term future. The report suggests GB’s negative outlook for the future could be because those surveyed are unconvinced that the country will be able to prevail in the face of future storms.

David Thomson, director of policy and public affairs, said: "We face a huge range of global challenges from the current financial crisis and subsequent eurozone sovereign debt problems through to the continuing increase in population and life expectancy, along with the increasing threat of catastrophic weather events that global warming brings.

"The insurance and financial services sectors must remain one step ahead of these issues to provide the advice and risk management on which clients rely. Our centenary series of reports seek to highlight some of the actions and choices we must address if we are to manage the risks and continue to secure the security, health and prosperity of clients in the next 100 years."