NEW By-election Breakdown 05/04/2018
John Johnston & Sam Webber
| PoliticsHome
PoliticsHome looks at this week's local by-elections and predicts who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.
FYLDE Heyhouses (Con died, 4 candidates, Labour, LD, Con, Green)
2015: Con 1260, 1227, 1063; Lab 843; LD 601
Jul 2012 (by): Con 401; Ind 313; LD 163; Grn 150; UKIP 147; Integrity UK 25
2011: Con 829, 723, 681; LD 557, 488
A by-election in the ultra-safe Heyhouses ward to start off this week’s rundown. The vacancy has come around after the tragic death of Conservative Councillor Barbara Nash who passed away over the festive period while playing with her Grandkids.
The much beloved councillor has been described as a “hard-working and a great champion for Heyhouses ward.
Flyde MP Mark Menzies paid tribute to the “wonderful” campaigner, saying she was “above all else, a wonderful person I feel honour to have known”.
Looking to carry-on the legacy that Barabara left behind is her 26-year-old daughter Sally, who is running for the Tories in tonight’s contest.
But never one to rest on their laurel’s the local Labour party have been mounting a significant ground campaign to try and scoop up the seat. Running for the Reds is local lass Lynn Goodwin. The Union rep, who has worked in a local supermarket for the past 15 years has managed to secure the backing of shadow frontbencher and arch-Corbynite Cat Smith who has been leading teams of volunteers around the doors.
But after all the votes are counted, we are confident that Sally will be sitting alongside her father on the Council to continue her mother’s legacy.
PREDICTION: CON HOLD
HIGHLAND, Caol and Mallaig (SNP died, 6 candidates, Ind, SNP, Ind, LD, Con, Ind)
2017: Ind 917 (stage 1), 767 (stage 3), 30; SNP 778 (stage 5); LD 304; Con 265; Lab 181 (SNP gain 1 from Ind)
May 2014 by: Ind 1176 (elected at stage 4); SNP 881; No Desc 551; UKIP 139; Christian 63
2012: Ind 905, 710, 506, 71, 60; SNP 411; Con 66; Christian 45
2007: Ind 975, 881, 550, 188, 151, 100, 64; Lab 473; SNP 389; Con 156
Welcome to bandit country. This GIGANTIC ward replete with mountains, lochs and rivers is a veritable death valley for party politics. Independents make up the largest group on the Highland Council, and Caol and Mallaig currently has two other Independent councillors representing it. All-in-all a very tough defence for the SNP.
True to form, Margaret Ferrier has battled over mountain and valley to get door knocking in this by-election. We really aren’t sure at this point if she is invited, or just turns up for fun. Either way, we hope she has wangled a “per mile” payment plan with SNP HQ.
The SNP seem to be trying their best to hit as many houses as possible in this massive ward, but in a ward that is significantly larger than the entirety of Greater London (794 square miles to 605), it really is an uphill battle.
However, it is more than likely that the seat will be scooped up by one of the THREE independents who are running.
Colin ‘Woody’ Wood has come out fighting, telling the local P&J that he is ready to “rattle the cages”.
“It is all getting quite exciting. I believe local should represent Lochaber and Lochaber shouldn’t be told how to vote. So many different thing define this area - big business and tourism - often the community gets overlooked.
“As a bold cage rattler I am not afraid to rattle the cages of those who need it.”
For the other two candidates it seems that it is more the taking part that counts.
One said: “I am pleased that it has been a decent and respectful campaign. I have enjoyed the feeling of being part of a campaign and it has been nice to see people rally round and support me.”
While another conceded: “I will respond to their needs as they arise, but voters should vote the way they feel.”
Even the no-hoper Conservative candidate admitted that all of the candidates were worthy of being elected.
Must be something in the water...
Prediction: Independent Gain
TAUNTON DEANE, Wiveliscombe and West Deane (Ind resigned, 3 candidates: LD, Green, Con)
2015: Ind 1081, 1000; Con 893; LD 439, 226; Grn 346
2011: Ind 1088, 943; Con 560
Both of our usual sources agree this will be a tight race (let’s hope not as tight as the dead heat in Ockendon a few weeks ago, which was decided by a coin-toss after a tie!). We hear rumblings that the Green candidate is doing better than expected, but we suspect that Vince Cable’s well kept secret of a party, which he says is polling at double its national ratings in local by elections like this, will get over the line and take this Somerset seat.
Prediction: Lib Dem Gain
NEW FOREST, Milford (Con died; 3 candidates: LD, Con ,Labour)
2015: Con 2282, 2232; Lab 582
Jul 2012 by: Con 963; Lab 240
2011: Con 1802, 1678; Lab 492
This doesn't look like much of a contest here in the New Forest. Judging by previous results for this ward even in the 2012 by-election in the depths of summer, the Conservatives managed to win with a 723 vote majority. It will be a Conservative hold in Milford despite their dreadful social media skills. Psst guys, you don't have to put your election imprint in tweets....
Prediction: Conservative Hold
A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.
So far we have predicted 75 out of 94 results correctly.
