Snow hits lamb crop

Industry body EBLEX/AHDBsaid the downgrade - 15.8 million head, 1.36 million lower than the estimated 2012 crop which it was expected to equal, comes despite a marginal increase in the breeding flock in December 2012.

“It has been clear for some time that the lambing rate would be lower, as the poor weather in 2012 and associated feed problems will have resulted in many ewes being in poor condition at tupping,” said EBLEX/AHDBsenior analyst Paul Heyhoe.

“Since then, there has been little opportunity for improvement and this will have impacted significantly on lambing rates even before the bad weather conditions earlier this year.

“At this level, the 2013 lamb crop would be the smallest in many years, as the low rearing rate is compounded by the fact the breeding flock is still around a third lower than it was in the 1990s.”

Despite the anticipated fall in the lamb crop, overall slaughterings in 2013 are forecast to be three per cent higher than 2012 levels, as reduced new season lamb numbers are expected to be balanced by a significant carryover of hoggets being slaughtered during the first half of this year.

The impact of the low 2013 crop is likely to be felt during the second half of 2013 and the first half of 2014, with the lamb kill during this period projected to be seven per cent down year-on-year, provided the season is not further affected by adverse weather conditions.