The idea that that people get things wrong is hardly a revelation. But a recent survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Statistical Society and King’s College London shows quite how wrong we can be on many aspects of life in Britain.
We think that one in four of the population is Muslim (five per cent in reality); we believe 31 per cent are immigrants (the official figure is 13 per cent); we reckon that, on average, 15 per cent of girls under the age of 16 get pregnant each year (0.6 per cent in reality). These misperceptions extend across other key issues relevant to public policy: we estimate that £24 out every £100 of benefit spend is claimed fraudulently (actual estimate: 70p); and we are convinced that crime is rising (the reverse has been true for years).
Perhaps we shouldn’t be very surprised by these findings. In his book Democracy and Political Ignorance, US academic Ilya Somin argues that it is rational for individual citizens to remain ignorant of public affairs because their votes are unlikely to affect the outcome of an election. There is little incentive for people to spend time exploring the facts around even important social issues. While this may be rational for individuals, Somin makes the case that it causes problems for the way democracy functions.
What factors inhibit understanding?
Does this lack of incentive to engage with social issues explain these massive misperceptions? Well, there are a number of factors that might help make sense of our findings. First, it’s difficult to get across complex concepts in survey questions. But probably more importantly, the public thinks about things differently from policy makers. For example, when we ask people what they mean by ‘benefit fraud’, answers include things such as claimants not having paid tax in the past because they haven’t had a job and people having children so they can claim more benefits – neither of which are actually fraud.
Second, we make lots of simple mistakes when answering these sorts of survey questions. This includes problems of statistical literacy – for example, many people struggle with very big or very small numbers, and find it hard to distinguish between rates of change and absolute levels.
Third, there is certainly an impact from the media and political discourse around such issues. The links between public attitudes and media coverage are complex and difficult to quantify, but the association is often strong. Most of us pay attention to vivid stories rather than straight facts, because they grab our attention and are easier to digest.
Finally, it also seems these misperceptions may be partly an effect of our existing concerns, rather than a cause. That is, we overestimate potential problems partly because we are worried about such things, rather than being worried because we know their full extent.
The implications for public policy
What does all of this misperception mean for public policy? If we want debates about these issues to be more informed, one long-term goal would be to improve statistical literacy, starting in schools. And alongside this, we need to continue to challenge the misuse of data by politicians and the media, through organisations such as the UK Statistical Authority and FullFact. Given the variety of factors at play, the direct impact on public perceptions may be limited, but the more frequently that poor use of statistics is highlighted, the less likely people using statistics will be to risk it.
Another challenge is that spin is often subtle. There are many instances when the information provided by politicians or the media is factually accurate, but they rely on examples that are highly unusual. Yet the captivating anecdotes stick in people’s minds, particularly if they reinforce their existing views.
This is part of the reason why ‘myth-busting’ exercises will not be enough to combat misperception. Just as important as providing a correct representation of scale is developing a broader narrative that appeals to people, with real-life stories designed to strengthen what the numbers tell us.
And of course, facts have their place too. Ipsos MORI regularly runs qualitative research where information is provided, experts provide evidence from different perspectives, and people have enough time to deliberate on issues they would not otherwise consider in detail. We often see their views shift as a result, and this is useful if it means that policies are based on what a more informed public think.
It is not practical to do this with every issue. Misperception will persist, not least because it does require effort for people to find out what’s really going on. But new technologies provide opportunities to develop ‘lighter touch’ approaches to informing people, and seeing whether or not that makes a difference to their views. While this won’t reach everyone, it could play a part in improving our currently poorly informed debates, and in shaping future policy.
This article has been published in
Ethos Journal
, and is written by Bobby Duffy and Daniel Cameron from Ipsos MORI