Could Labour Lose Its Grip On London?
6 min read
London has rarely been a concern for Labour strategists in recent years. But there is nervousness about what awaits them at next year's elections in the capital.
London, for some time, has generally been seen as safe Labour territory. However, there is growing concern inside the party that this domination could be at risk, and experts are warning Labour against "banking" on the capital in an increasingly multi-party system.
PoliticsHome understands that there is nervousness in City Hall about Labour losing control across several boroughs in May next year, when elections will take place for around 1,800 council seats.
As things stand, around 65 per cent of council seats in London, which comes to 21 of 32 councils, are controlled by Keir Starmer's party.
Labour 'fighting on five fronts'
“[If] we look forward to 7 May next year, Labour is effectively fighting on five fronts,” Professor Tony Travers, visiting professor in LSE Department of Government and director of LSE London, told PoliticsHome.
After winning a landslide victory at the July general election, Labour now faces electoral threats from all angles: the Greens and Liberal Democrats from the left, and the Tories and Reform from the right. The prospect of a Gaza-focused challenger from the left, potentially fronted by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, is an added electoral headache.
Travers said there is a tendency within Labour to believe "London is Labour" which risks creating complacency when it comes to the capital's needs.
"This is a problem for London when it comes to things like spending allocations," he said, explaining that ministers often prefer to spend money on areas where support is perceived as weaker.
“The Labour Party needs to be careful [about] not accidentally sending out a signal... that the government will take London for granted politically,” said Travers.
This was a concern expressed by London Labour MPs around the time of the Spending Review, with one telling PoliticsHome: “I don't want people to feel like London is this safe city."
London Mayor Sadiq Khan expressed disappointment that Chancellor Rachel Reeves did not use the early June Spending Review to grant him money to fund transport projects and powers to introduce a tourist tax.
The spectre of Farage
The past year has seen Prime Minister Starmer attempt to combat the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
While Reform is polling lower in London than the national average — 16 per cent compared to 26 per cent across the UK, according to YouGov — there is nervousness that the party still poses a significant threat, especially in some of the East London boroughs.
One Labour source in the capital said there are outer boroughs with similar characteristics to parts of the North and the Midlands where Reform is polling particularly well, telling PoliticsHome: “If they get their act together and get organised, they will be a threat."
According to the most recent YouGov research, Reform was polling first in Bexleyheath and Crayford, Dagenham and Rainham, Hornchurch and Upminster, Old Bexley and Sidcup, and Romford. These parliamentary constituencies cover the three boroughs of Barking and Dagenham, Bexley, and Havering.
The threat to Labour's left flank
The government's focus on taking the fight to Reform on issues like immigration, as well as contentious decisions in areas like welfare, has triggered warnings that Labour risks shedding support and activists to other parties of the left, like the Greens.
Liam Shrivastava, leader of the Green opposition on Lewisham Council, claimed that Labour councillors face a “serious threat” of losing their seats in May 2026.
Shrivastava, who was a Labour councillor until he defected last month, said that when he was still in the party, it "was losing canvassers who refuse to campaign or have left the party".
One chair of a Constituency Labour Party recently told PoliticsHome they had heard activists contemplating their membership following changes to asylum policy in January.
Tensions between the Labour leadership and the party left have surfaced once again in recent days.
In Westminster, Starmer removed the party whip from four MPs for rebellious behaviour, while in Southwark, south London, the party's high command was accused of a stitch-up after the election for borough leader was re-run. Left-wing candidate James McAsh won the first vote. However, complaints about the use of proxy voting led to another vote, which was won by Sarah King, a candidate regarded as being from the right of the party.
Shrivastava said the episode in Southwark showed why Labour had become a "dead end for socialists".
The Greens came second in 18 of the London constituencies at the July general election, and the party's head of elections, Chris Williams, told PoliticsHome that the Greens see 2026 as a “big opportunity” as Labour support “crumbles on the doorstep”.
The party is looking to make inroads in Hackney — where suspended Labour MP Diane Abbott is an MP — as well as Lewisham.
The scale of the Green threat to Labour could be determined by the identity of the party's future leadership. As The House Magazine reported in May, the party faces a clear choice between Zack Polanski, who is determined to make the Greens a new home for disgruntled members of the Labour left, and a joint ticket of Ellie Chowns and Adrian Ramsey, rural MPs seen as better placed to build on recent Green growth in conservative areas.
The birth of a new left-wing party, potentially led by Corbyn and/or Sultana, would pose an additional threat to Labour from the left.
In an interview with PoliticsHome to be published on Sunday, Iqbal Mohamed, the pro-Gaza Independent MP for Dewsbury and Batley, said he was “fully behind” the ex-Labour pair co-leading a new left-wing force.
Green councillor Shrivastava admitted that while questions remain over a possible new party, “a lot of people on the left will be expecting some kind of collaboration" with the Greens.
Tories eye a recovery
The Tories suffered one of their worst ever defeats at last year's general election. It didn't get much better for them at local elections in May this year, when they lost nearly 700 council seats to Farage's Reform and Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats.
However, the party could start to taste victory again at next year's London council elections, according to Professor Travers. He pointed to the boroughs of Barnet and Westminster, where the contests remain “broadly two-party fights" between the Conservatives and Labour.
PoliticsHome understands that Kemi Badenoch's party is hopeful of taking control of Wandsworth council, which is currently controlled by Labour.
However, one party source said they would not be surprised to see a challenging set of results on the outer fringes of East London.
Lib Dems look to rise again
Currently, the Lib Dems control three South West London councils: Kingston upon Thames, Richmond upon Thames, and Sutton.
In the same area, the party is hopeful of taking control of Merton council —currently under Labour control — after it won the Wimbledon constituency from the Conservatives at the last election.
But the party also hopes to show signs of progress in places where it has remnants of campaign infrastructure dating back to before the party's collapse in the capital: Southwark, Haringey, Camden, and Islington.
Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat MP Luke Taylor, who is also the party's London spokesperson, claimed that the May 2026 elections could not come at a better time for the party.
“Before, Labour councils have been able to blame any issues on the government, but they are now having to manage that message...
“London isn’t seeing the results it was promised from having a Labour government and mayor."
Additional reporting by Noah Vickers.
