Keir Starmer still needs to answer one big question – what is he for?
Keir Starmer speaking at the launch of the government's 10-year health plan, 3 July 2025 (PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo)
5 min read
As Labour marks a year in office, divisions over welfare policy and dire poll ratings mean the party is not in a celebratory mood.
This week’s benefits row feels like a particularly low ebb, with 65 per cent of the public saying they lack confidence in Labour’s policies to change the benefits system. But this row reflects wider problems. A majority of the public tell Ipsos they are disappointed with what they have seen from Labour in government so far (56 per cent), with a clear majority also saying Labour have done a bad job on key issues such as reducing the cost of living (62 per cent), managing immigration and asylum (59 per cent) and managing the economy (54 per cent).
The upshot is that Reform UK are now consistently ahead in polls. Our first Ipsos voting intention poll since the general election has them nine points ahead of Labour (34 per cent to 25 per cent). Our data shows the party losing votes equally to a combination of Reform UK and the Conservatives (16 per cent) and the Lib Dems, Greens and other parties (16 per cent).
In Labour circles, there is an intense debate about how to respond. Prioritise Reform-leaning Labour voters to prevent direct Labour to Reform switching, or build an anti-Reform UK ‘progressive alliance’ combining Labour loyalists with votes from elsewhere? Could there even be a way to appeal to both groups?
Assessing the landscape
Ipsos analysis of our aggregated polling data this year shows around one in four 2024 Labour voters say they are unlikely to consider voting Labour next time. But just under one in five (18 per cent) of a much larger group that did not vote Labour would consider doing so. In general, Labour still has a significant group of potential supporters in the country. However, this pool is diverse – politically and demographically. It will be hard to appeal to them all.
The case for appealing to Reform-friendly Labour voters
Labour’s existing strategy, often ascribed to key advisor Morgan McSweeney, appears to target small ‘c’ conservative Reform-friendly voters with tough rhetoric on immigration, welfare and crime. This has been heavily criticised by those who feel it offers too little to progressive voters who might otherwise consider voting Labour.
But the data shows McSweeney has a point. The table below compares the British population overall to different groups of 2024 Labour voters on several measures. It shows that, predictably, Labour loyalists are more positive about the country and Keir Starmer than others – and more likely to prioritise health and tackling inequality.
However, the 2024 voters Labour are most likely to lose look very Reform-friendly. They are extremely negative about the direction of the country, more likely than average to prioritise immigration as an issue and warmer to Nigel Farage and Reform UK than Keir Starmer and Labour. They are also older than the population overall, less likely to have gone to university and much more likely than average to live in the North of England.
This suggests that Labour must have an offer to this group – on immigration and asylum in particular – to stop them switching to Reform. However, whilst some may be won back, others are already extremely hostile to Keir Starmer personally. Nine in 10 Labour voters from 2024 who now say they will "not consider the party at all" have an unfavourable opinion of the Prime Minister; many might already be lost.
The case for building a progressive alliance
Our data suggests a case for Labour building a progressive alliance against Reform. Those not voting Labour in 2024, but who will consider the party now, share similarities with Labour loyalists. They are more positive about the direction of the country than average; warmer to Keir Starmer; dislike Nigel Farage; and prioritise health, the cost of living, the economy and tackling poverty.
But this strategy is risky. A majority of this group are aged under 35 (53 per cent) and around six in 10 are also considering the Lib Dems or Greens. A strategy focused on Gen Z progressives could easily fail. This group are typically less likely to vote and don’t tend to have a history of voting Labour. They are also often found in cities. Missing the mark with this group, whilst further alienating Reform-leaning 2024 Labour voters, risks the worst of both worlds for Labour.
Defining ‘Starmerism’
Starmer, like most prime ministers, might reject the premise he has to choose between these groups, hoping instead to appeal to both by delivering on public services and the cost of living. However, the argument for ‘deliverism’, though valid, feels insufficient. If Starmer isn’t to choose, he still needs to explain what (and who) his government is for.
A year into government, a majority of the public are still unsure. Starmer needs a more compelling answer to that question soon. Otherwise, tough elections in Scotland and Wales next year could lead to many asking whether he is the right person to ultimately lead Labour into the next general election.
Keiran Pedley is director of politics at Ipsos
