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Sun, 12 July 2020

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The House Live All
By Andrew McQuillan
Press releases
By Hft

Conservatives would win slim majority if general election held today, shock poll finds

Conservatives would win slim majority if general election held today, shock poll finds
3 min read

The Conservatives would secure a slim working majority if a general election were held today, a new poll has predicted.

However, the YouGov survey of more than 40,000 people for The Times suggests it would not be big enough to allow the Prime Minister to force her Brexit deal through the Commons.

Speculation continues to mount that Mrs May could call a snap election as a way of breaking the Brexit deadlock in Parliament.

According to the poll, which combines the intentions of different types of voters with demographic data in different constituencies, the Tories would gain four seats, taking their overall tally to 321, if the election was held now.

Labour would lose twelve seats to fall to 250, the SNP's representation would increase to 39 and the Lib Dems' return would go up to16 MPs..

In terms of vote share, the poll predicts the Tories would drop four percentage points compared to 2017, giving them 39%, while Labour would slump seven points to 34%.

Because Sinn Fein do not take their seats and the Speaker is not counted, YouGov say the result would be enough to give the Conservatives a slender majority.

The same polling model was used by YouGov during the 2017 elelction and correctly predicted a hung parliament, despite other polls giving the Tories a significant lead.


Meanwhile, The Sun reports that some Cabinet ministers believe that Mrs May is preparing to quit as Prime Minister this summer so she can have a say over her successor.

Mrs May has already declared that she will not take the Tories into the next planned general election in 2022, with top Conservatives already jostling to succeed her.

According to The Sun, Liam Fox and Greg Clark now believe Mrs May is preparing to stand down after Britain leaves the European Union in order to give herself more influence over who takes the Tory reins.

A senior Conservative source told the paper: "Liam is convinced she’ll go this summer. He says everything the PM has told him suggests that.

"She’s determined to ensure the right person follows her, and she’ll have no say at all if it gets to the stage of forcing her out."

Mr Clark, the Business Secretary, is also said to have told friends that he expects the Prime Minister to leave of her own accord this year, citing a lack of interest in domestic policy since Tory MPs tried to oust her in a confidence vote late last year.

But a senior Downing Street source said only Mrs May's husband Philip would know her "real thinking" on her departure plans.


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