Downing Street Pushes For Progress In Compromise Talks With Welfare Rebels
6 min read
Downing Street faces a race against time to erode a major Labour rebellion that threatens to inflict a humiliating defeat on its welfare reforms next week.
Lucy Powell, Leader of the House of Commons, confirmed on Thursday that a Commons vote on the proposed welfare cuts will go ahead as planned on Tuesday, despite over 130 Labour MPs signing a reasoned amendment that threatens to destroy the legislation.
Ministers argue that the cuts are needed to avoid welfare spending becoming unsustainable.
Dozens of concerned Labour MPs, however, have warned that the cuts go too far, and have accused the government of failing to consult disability groups on the impact they will have on those affected. Government analysis published earlier this year estimated that the changes would push 250,000 people – including 50,000 children – into poverty.
Senior Cabinet ministers, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, have contacted Labour rebels, urging them to remove their names from the amendment. Matt Faulding, a fixer figure in Prime Minister Keir Starmer's inner circle, has spent the week in Parliament scoping out the mood among backbenchers.
Talks are underway with rebels over possible changes to the bill, in a sign that No 10 accepts that it is going to have to make concessions to avoid a remarkable defeat on Tuesday.
“It seems the leadership has finally understood that, and there seems to be some real progress going on,” said one new intake MP who has signed the amendment.
Speaking in the Commons earlier today, Starmer himself said there was a "conversation" to be had with rebellious Labour backbenchers who “want to get this right".
The rebels’ key demands include a full impact assessment of the welfare reforms and watering down of proposed changes to Personal Independent Payments.
PIP assessments involve questions about everyday tasks such as preparing and eating food, washing and getting dressed. Each is scored on a scale from zero (with no difficulty) to 12 (severe difficulty).
The government has said people will need to score at least four points for one activity from November 2026, instead of qualifying for support with a score which describes less severe difficulties (ones and twos) across a broad range of activities.
Rebels want the government to stick to cumulative scoring, PoliticsHome understands.
PoliticsHome understands that among concessions being floated to dissuade rebels from blocking the bill on Tuesday is bringing employment support forward, and allowing existing claimants of PIP to keep their payments even if they fail to score above 4 points on any one criterion. This would mean existing PIP claimants would be protected from planned changes, but new PIP claimants would have to score above 4 in one area to receive the benefit.
A handful of committee chairs who signed the reasoned amendment are playing a lead role in talks with Downing Street. Meg Hillier and Debbie Abrahams, chairs of the Treasury and Work & Pensions committees respectively, are two of the most high-profile names on the reasoned amendment.
Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier has been among those leading Labour rebel talks with the government (Alamy)
Among the Labour malcontents are MPs on the party's left who want the welfare bill to be pulled altogether.
“If the select committee chairs who are negotiating believe the rest of us will accept anything less than this abomination of a bill being pulled, they are wrong, and that then leaves them in a very precarious position with colleagues," warned one.
Others, meanwhile, are open to voting for the bill on Tuesday if it comes with concessions.
“All we need is something on the four points,” one MP said. “[but] Downing Street has given us a pile of shit, and are expecting us to go along with it by giving us even more shit.”
Some Labour rebels are said to be surprised by the scale of the political crisis it has unleashed on Starmer's leadership and, as a result, are keen to grasp a government olive branch.
Powell's announcement today that the government plans to hold the Committee, Report and Third Reading stages of the welfare bill in the space of one day in the week following Tuesday's Second Reading did little to mollify the most frustrated Labour rebels.
"It's a 'rip the plaster off' approach, but that's not good if you pull off the whole arm in the process," complained one backbencher.
Another said the timetable was "crackers" and that the party faces another "summer of misery" like in 2024 following the controversial decision to cut winter fuel support.
It has been noted within Labour that many of the welfare rebels recently voted against Kim Leadbeater's assisted dying bill. While that was a free vote, meaning MPs were allowed to vote according to their individual conscience, there was organising behind the scenes, creating what was described as a form of unofficial whipping infrastructure.
The welfare rebels’ whipping operation – aided by Vicky Foxcroft, who resigned from her role as government whip last week over the bill – has involved contacting rebels directly, PoliticsHome understands, as opposed to creating enormous WhatsApp groups prone to leaking.
The episode — which even before Tuesday's vote is seen as the most serious challenge to the Prime Minister's authority since entering power nearly a year ago — has created wider questions about Starmer's No 10 operation.
“No 10 has lost control over the Parliamentary Labour Party and they have all the power,” one minister told PoliticsHome. "There’s no loyalty to the PM, and in fact, quite a lot of resentment. There’s been no relationship building or management."
Many rebels, however, are keen to stress that their rebellion has everything to do with the welfare reforms and nothing to do with Starmer's leadership.
“If there were a confidence vote tomorrow, Keir Starmer would win by miles. There's no rebellion against the government as an entity. There's a rebellion on this specific issue and for specific reasons," one MP in this camp sought to explain.
That said, Labour MPs are using the row to push for major changes at the top of government.
Even before the reasoned amendment was published at the start of last week, there was speculation that Morgan McSweeney would eventually be replaced as Starmer's chief of staff amid Labour MP restlessness with the government's political direction. Backbench calls for a change of personnel have increased in volume over the last few days.
Labour MPs have also come to the defence of Chief Whip Alan Campbell in the face of accusations that he failed to foresee the scale of the rebellion. “No 10 is blaming the whips, which, as much as I have doubts about Alan, it’s not his fault," said one.
