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Thu, 13 August 2020

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Final opinion polls put Conservatives in the lead - but hung Parliament still a possibility

Final opinion polls put Conservatives in the lead - but hung Parliament still a possibility
3 min read

The Conservatives are heading for victory in the general election but another hung Parliament remains a possibility, according to the final batch of opinion polls.

A flurry of polls was published on the final day of the campaign, with one putting the Tories just five points ahead of Labour and another giving them a six-point lead.

However, most showed the Conservatives maintaining their 10-point advantage over their closest rivals, a result which would be enough to give Boris Johnson a Commons majority.

According to a Sevanta ComRes poll for the Daily Telegraph, the Conservatives are on 41%, while Labour are on 36%, the Lib Dems 12% and the Brexit Party 3%.

Meanwhile, ICM put the Tories on 42%, with support for Labour at 36%, the Lib Dems on 12% and the Brexit Party on 3%.

Other polls gave Mr Johnson a firmer lead, with Kantar's final survey putting the Tories 12 points clear of Labour on 44% to 32%.

Deltapoll's eve-of-election study similarly puts the Conservatives ahead on 45% to Labour's 35%.

Online pollster Qriously meanwhile gives the Conservatives a thirteen-point lead on 43%, with Labour trailing on just 30%.

The most anticipated poll of election day will be the joint Sky News, ITV and BBC exit poll, which is set to be unveiled at 10pm once all ballots are cast and counting begins across the country.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of Savanta ComRes, said: “There is a huge range of possible outcomes, from a hung parliament to a robust Tory majority. The final Savanta ComRes poll of the campaign points to large numbers of reluctant Labour supporters, probably voting tactically but doing so without wanting to usher in a Corbyn-led majority government.

“A striking feature of this election is the large proportion of voters who simply cannot decide or may change who they vote for. Given the tightness of the battle, what those one in six undecided voters choose to do will almost certainly have a profound impact on the result and therefore on the future of this country."

Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage predicted that the cold weather will help to give the Conservatives a majority of between3 0 and 40 seats.

The former Ukip boss predicted that "Labour absentionism" would be a key factor in Britain's first December vote for almost a century.

He said: "My great impression of this is that a lot of people who are Labour voters who may have voted Labour for generations, it is going to rain tomorrow and they are going to think 'are we really going to go out and vote for Jeremy Corbyn' so I think Labour absentionism could be a big factor."


Mr Farage meanwhile told activists that his candidates had been "hounded and bombarded in the most extraordinary way" throughout the course of the election campaign.

And he told The Guardian: "I think generally the tone of politics has deteriorated hugely, but I think our people have been subjected, certainly online, to something quite extraordinary.

"Because there has been a mass campaign organised to try and get our candidates to withdraw from standing in the election."

He added: "[Independent Group for Change MP] Anna Soubry gets a few nasty words from some lout outside parliament and everybody is up in arms.

"That is nothing compared to what hundreds of ordinary decent people who have put themselves forward because they believe in something have suffered over the course of the last eight weeks."

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