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Fri, 4 December 2020

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Final pre-election poll puts Conservatives eight points clear

Final pre-election poll puts Conservatives eight points clear
2 min read

The last poll to be published in the election campaign has given the Conservatives an eight-point lead over Labour. 


The Ipsos MORI survey for the Evening Standard falls near the middle of different polling companies’ estimates, which range from a one-point advantage for the Tories to a comfortable 13-point lead.

Ipsos MORI had topline figures of the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 36%, Liberal Democrats on 7%, the SNP on 5%, Ukip on 4%, and the Greens on 2%.

The pollster said there was a four-point margin of error on its figures, which are based on fieldwork carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday.

If the voting pattern is replicated in today’s polling booths, the gap would likely leave Theresa May with an enhanced majority.

The poll also showed a further deterioration in the Prime Minister’s personal ratings – though they continued to outperform those of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Asked who was the most capable prime minister, 47% of respondents said Mrs May – down three points from last week and 14% from April – while 36% said Mr Corbyn.

Gideon Skinner, Ipsos MORI’s head of political research, said: “The Conservatives had a wobble last week, but have regained a clear lead in the last few days. 

“Theresa May’s advantage over Jeremy Corbyn is also lower than it was at the start of the campaign, but she and her party have kept their support among key voting groups such as older people. 

“Having said that, one in five voters say they might still change their mind, so there are still votes to fight for.”

It is the last in a long list of polls released as voters began casting their ballots in the general election.

They ranged from Survation placing Labour just behind the Tories on 40.4% and 41.3% respectively, to BMG Research putting the Conservatives on 46% and Labour on 33%. 

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