Keir Starmer Faces An Increasingly Fractious Labour Party

Keir Starmer faces the biggest rebellion of his premiership so far over the welfare reform bill (alamy)

The sapping mid-June heat was just one of many things Labour MPs were complaining about in Westminster this week.

The party may be approaching one year in office, but the jubilation of victory feels like a very distant memory, as Downing Street tries to manage its irritated and increasingly rebellious ranks of Labour MPs.

In the parliamentary tea rooms, backbenchers complain about the lack of engagement from No 10 and what they describe as a lack of opportunities to voice their concerns to government figures about the current direction of travel. Nearly 12 months in office, and some Labour MPs claim that they have not yet had a meeting with the Prime Minister.

On the world stage, the government faces a multitude of crises which absorb Keir Starmer’s attention: escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, Russia's continued assault on Ukraine, and an erratic partner in Donald Trump.

MPs broadly accept that Starmer has done a good job abroad. Even those on the Labour left, who for a long time were unhappy with the government's stance on Gaza, are now more content with the government’s position towards Israel.  

It's at home where Labour MPs are most unhappy, with the government's welfare reform legislation, the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill, threatening to provoke the biggest Labour rebellion of Starmer's premiership so far.

A letter sent to Chief Whip Alan Campbell has more than 100 signatures from MPs voicing concerns over the impact of cutting Personal Independence Payments. The government is braced for at least 50 MPs to vote against the bill, according to The Guardian.

On Wednesday, PoliticsHome reported that government whips were urging rebels to abstain on the proposed benefits cuts, rather than vote against them, with malcontents being warned that they risk being in the same voting lobby as Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Government sources are hopeful that most will be convinced to abstain.

It is not just on the backbenchers, however, where trouble is brewing. PoliticsHome understands No 10 is braced for a host of junior ministers and parliamentary private secretaries to resign over the issue, which may force Starmer into a mini re-shuffle.

Vicky Foxcroft resigned as a government whip on Thursday, becoming the first frontbencher to quit over the welfare reforms.

Rebels have coalesced around two points: a full impact assessment on cutting PIP would have, and movement on the so-called four points.

PIP assessments involve questions about everyday tasks such as preparing and eating food, washing and getting dressed. Each is scored on a scale from zero (with no difficulty) to 12 (severe difficulty). 

The government has said people will need to score at least four points for one activity from November 2026, instead of qualifying for support with a score which describes less severe difficulties (ones and twos) across a broad range of activities.

“As far as I can tell, there is no movement on either of these points,” said one Labour MP.

Downing Street has deployed Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, as well as the latter's ministerial team, to dissuade MPs from voting against the government.

“I didn’t get into politics to abstain,” warned a backbencher who plans to defy them.

Another Labour MP added: “Most of us have come in desperate to contribute in a meaningful way to a Labour government, not to be lobby fodder."

Matt Faulding, a fixer figure who oversaw Labour's general election candidate selection process, was spotted in MPs' offices this week to scope out the mood among backbenchers. “This guy strikes the fear of death into MPs,” said one Labour source.

Pat McFadden, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and close Starmer ally, hosted the Scottish PLP meeting this week. McFadden told the group that as an MP whose constituency has one of the highest ratios of people on PIP in the country, he understood the concern over planned cuts.

However, he said that the government could not afford to continue the status quo of an ever-rising benefits bill, and said the equivalent of the population of Wolverhampton – where his constituency is located – was joining the list of PIP recipients every year.

The welfare cuts are not the only irritant, though.

Starmer's decision to launch a national inquiry into grooming gangs, having spent months arguing it is not necessary, tested the patience of even the most loyal Labour backbenchers.

“It’s not great when you march up a hill and then find out we’ve u-turned,” one told PoliticsHome.

In the coming weeks, Labour MPs are expected to be more vocal about what they want to see from the government as it approaches one year in power.

PoliticsHome understands that two of the party's most influential groupings, The Red Wall Caucus and Labour Growth Group, are expected to hold a joint meeting to discuss where they agree on policy, including more funding for police.  

On the government benches, PoliticsHome understands there will be a shift in strategy for Prime Minister's Questions. Instead of hitting back at Leader of the Opposition Kemi Badenoch on the Tory record, the Prime Minister will attempt to use the sessions to talk more about what Labour is doing in power, following his own admission this week that government communications had not been good enough.

One thing restless Labour MPs should not expect in the coming weeks, however, is a Cabinet reshuffle.

While in recent weeks there has been speculation over who could be replaced, Starmer is believed to be unconvinced that reshuffles can make a major difference.

A source close to the Prime Minister also dismissed the idea that the former human rights lawyer could extract the UK from the ECHR, despite the idea starting to gain traction among Labour MPs."Keir Starmer has written a book on the ECHR – he is not going to commit to leaving it,’ they told PoliticsHome.

Additional reporting by Sophie Church.

Related

Public Expects To See Improvements In NHS, Schools And Housing Before The Next General Election

By Zoe Crowther

20 Jun