Voters In Labour-Reform Battlegrounds More Likely To Rely On Disability Benefits
A protest against welfare cuts was held in Cardiff in May (Alamy)
3 min read
The majority of Labour seats at risk from Reform have the highest rates of people living on disability benefits, according to new research by anti-poverty charity Trussell.
The research, shared with PoliticsHome, found that nearly six in 10 Labour constituencies that are at risk of being won by Reform at the next general election are in the top third of areas in England and Wales for the rates of people receiving health-related benefits.
According to Electoral Calculus polling in May, 247 seats could change hands from Labour to Reform based on current trends, and the new Trussell analysis shows that 140 of those seats are in the top third for reliance on health-related benefits.
Labour-Reform battlegrounds in South Wales, the Midlands and the North East have particularly high rates of people receiving disability support, including the seats of Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall and Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, as well as ministers Chris Bryant and Torsten Bell.
The government has proposed changes to eligibility criteria for the Personal Independence Payment (PIP), which could impact up to 3.2m people from November 2026.
With Parliament expected to vote on the legislation soon, there is continued unease among many Labour MPs about the cuts.
There is also widespread concern among the Labour ranks about the rise of Reform, following the success of Nigel Farage’s party in the recent local and mayoral elections.
When PoliticsHome visited Hull and East Yorkshire in the run-up to the region’s mayoral contest, many former Labour voters spoke of their dismay at the government’s choice to tighten PIP criteria. Carol, in her 70s, said that Labour’s responsibility to look after the vulnerable had “gone out of the window”. The contest was then won by Reform’s Luke Campbell by a comfortable margin.
In recent weeks, Farage has committed to reversing the government decision to restrict the winter fuel payment, which Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he will review following a major backlash, and expressed support for scrapping the two-child benefit cap.
These moves were seen as part of the Reform leader's wider effort to appeal to Labour voters.
Helen Barnard, director of policy, research and impact at Trussell, told PoliticsHome: “Disabled people are already three times more likely to face hunger, and 75 per cent of people coming to food banks are disabled or live with someone who is.
“Cutting disability benefits won’t increase employment, it will simply push more people to the doors of food banks and drive up yet more pressure on our public services.
“The government was elected on a manifesto pledge to end the need for emergency food. This isn’t what people voted for. But there is still time for the government to rethink and do what’s right.”
The planned changes to PIP were among a wider package of reforms to the benefits system announced by the government in March.
The Labour government argues that major reform of the welfare system is necessary because the amount of money paid out in the form of benefits is not sustainable.
Speaking at the time, Kendall said that the changes would "help people stay in work" and "get back to work more quickly".
A government impact assessment accompanying the announcement said that the changes would push 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, into relative poverty.
Trussell has arranged a ‘lobby day’ on Wednesday 18 June, in which food bank managers and users will meet with their MPs to call for improvements to the social security system.
