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Fri, 5 June 2020

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Voters in marginal seats have significantly more influence than average voter says new research

Voters in marginal seats have significantly more influence than average voter says new research
2 min read

Voters across 25 constituencies will have 16 times more power on average in the General Election than the rest of the UK, according to new research.


The “Voter Power Index” from pro-second referendum group Vote For A Final Say shows that in marginal constituencies such as Cheadle, Canterbury, and Gower, voters have significantly more influence than the rest of the country.

In Cheadle, a swing seat between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats where the Conservatives retained the seat with a 4,707 majority in 2017, voters are almost 100 times more powerful than the national average with a Voter Power Index score of 96.13.

Finchley and Golders Green appears at the end of the list, with a Voter Power Index score of only 1.52. However that still means voters are at least 50 per cent more powerful than the national average. 

The analysis from combines data from three MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) models, including those from the popular YouGov research published this week, predicting a 68-seat Tory majority, and Best for Britain, a pro-EU campaign group predicting a Tory majority of 82.

These were then combined alongside work done by strategists preparing for a second referendum.

With a Voter Power Index of 8.19 in Sedgefield, Phil Wilson, the Labour candidate, risks losing his seat to the Conservatives in the forthcoming election as there is only 1 point between the two parties in the MRP prediction. 

Mr Wilson said: "Polls show the Tories are heading for victory but just a few hundred votes in key constituencies all over the country could stop Boris Johnson being given a blank cheque. 

“The Tories have given us years of austerity and brutal cuts to public services. Now they are hell bent on a destructive Brexit that will wreak yet more havoc on people in this country who can least afford it. 

“This analysis shows that people in constituencies like Sedgefield have tremendous power. It’s really important we use that power - and use it wisely - now while we still have it.”

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