Welsh Labour Looks To 2026 Elections With Fear
5 min read
Labour has dominated politics in Wales for decades. But party figures there fear major losses at the 1 May local elections in England were a sign of what's to come across the border next year.
Labour has won the most votes and seats in Wales at every UK general election for over 100 years, and has been in power since the Senedd's inception at the turn of the century. Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan and all of her predecessors have been Labour.
Even as Labour collapsed in Scotland in 2015, and then saw its historic dominance in the so-called Red Wall evaporate nearly a decade later, its vote managed to hold up in Wales.
However, Labour figures in Wales fear 2026 could be the year when things change, and dramatically.
A YouGov poll last week, which put Labour on 18 per cent, behind Plaid Cymru on 30 per cent and Reform UK on 25 per cent, set Labour WhatsApp groups ablaze. The party seems to be losing votes to the left and the right, and there is no settled position among Labour MPs and MSs on how to respond.
Long-serving parliamentarians blame the party's downturn on several factors.
There is what is described as a double incumbency problem: voters in Wales feel dissatisfied both with the devolved government in Cardiff and Keir Starmer's UK government in Westminster – the latter of which has seen its ratings fall sharply since its landslide general election victory in July.
The current Welsh Labour government is facing a perfect storm where the party is “unpopular in its own right”, according to Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol and deputy director at the UK in a Changing Europe think tank.
“Welsh Labour are seen as not having delivered for more than a decade,” Surridge said, “so there aren’t too many positives for them.”
Sources in Welsh Labour say there is apathy in the membership, with the party struggling to mobilise activists.
“Would you join a company where you just give away money and don’t get anything in return? Lots of our members are demotivated,” said one Welsh Labour MP.
Labour MPs report a drop-off in engagement at local branch meetings. At one time, between 50 and 60 volunteers would turn up, but now they claim they are lucky to get as many as 15 people.
Welsh MPs historically have felt taken for granted by the Labour leadership in London.
Neil Kinnock is the only Welsh person to lead the Labour Party in its history. Jim Callaghan and Michael Foot represented Welsh constituencies but were born in England. Party founder Keir Hardie represented the Welsh mining town of Merthyr Tydfil but was born in Scotland.
Nowadays, Welsh Labour MPs have little to complain about when it comes to seats at the table. Of the 32 parliamentary seats in Wales, Labour holds 27, and 12 of those MPs are in government. They include Jo Stevens, Secretary of State for Wales; Stephen Kinnock, the care minister (and son of Neil); Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Paymaster General; Torsten Bell, the pensions minister; and long-serving MP, culture minister Chris Bryant.
But Welsh Labour sources say this has resulted in their caucus having a limited presence on the backbenches, where they feel more able to challenge the government.
“With there being so many Welsh Labour MPs in government, it has made it tough to bend collective responsibility and raise issues,” one MP told PoliticsHome.
Some figures in Welsh Labour believe there is a growing tension between Westminster and Cardiff, with First Minister Morgan having recently made comments appearing to distance herself from decisions taken by the Starmer government.
Morgan said she would “call out” the Prime Minister when he gets it wrong and has criticised planned cuts to benefits. Earlier this month, the BBC reported that Morgan told Welsh Labour MPs they were not doing enough to stand up for Wales in Westminster.
Morgan did not deny the comments and later said: “There will be times when we perhaps see things in a different light. That's devolution."
“[Morgan’s] intervention has made many MPs feel deeply hurt," said one Welsh Labour MP. "Understandably, she is fighting for political survival after Welsh Labour changed the electoral system.”
Former Labour first minister of Wales Lord Jones warned his party that it could be "very difficult" to win back lost voters
Welsh Labour will hold its annual party conference in June, which could be used by the First Minister to distance herself further from the direction of the Westminster government.
Sources close to Morgan sought to downplay the incident and claimed both administrations would work together in lockstep.
“We’re proud to be part of the Labour movement, and under Eluned Morgan and Keir Starmer, two Labour governments working together can deliver real change for people in Wales,” one told PoliticsHome. “That includes standing up for the specific needs of our communities, from fair funding to investment in infrastructure.”
Whatever the disagreements, both parties are alive to the acute threat of both Plaid Cymru and Reform, which threaten to force Labour out of power in Wales.
“The lesson for us all is that politics changes very, very quickly,” Lord Jones, the former Labour first minister of Wales, told PoliticsHome.
“It’s important that we work together now, looking at the election in May [2026].
"What we do need to see as a party is what happened in Scotland in 2007, when the Scottish National Party became the Labour Party. And the rest we can see is history, where we saw a lot of Labour voters transfer to the SNP, and it was very difficult to get them back.”
Buoyed by their gains at local and mayoral elections in England earlier this month, Reform senses another opportunity for a major electoral breakthrough in Wales.
Party sources say they are filling out members' clubs in Bridgend, an old coal mining town in South Wales, with 150 people. MP Lee Anderson has visited, and supportive media personalities like GB News presenter Matt Goodwin are expected to campaign there, too.
Pessimistic Labour MPs in Wales look at the 1 May results and warn: you ain't seen nothing yet. More optimistic figures say the government has time to turn things around before then. Neither group feels comfortable at the moment.
