Sadiq Khan analysis warns of 'lost decade' after no-deal Brexit

Posted On: 
11th January 2018

Britain could lose half a million jobs and miss out on £50bn in investment if it fails to secure a Brexit deal, new analysis commissioned by London mayor Sadiq Khan has warned.

“The harder the Brexit, the more severe the economic damage could be”
PA Images

The report says the economy could suffer a “lost decade” if the worst of its five predictions for the post-Brexit landscape is born out.

Mr Khan commissioned the study by Cambridge Econometrics after the Government refused to make an assessment of the impact Brexit could have on the UK.

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It claims every outcome will harm Britain, but “the harder the Brexit, the more severe the economic damage could be”.

In the worst case scenario of crashing out with no deal and no transitional arrangement, economic output could be up to 3.3% lower in 2030 than it would have been otherwise, the report says.

That would lead to the loss of some 482,000 jobs by 2030 and a loss of £46.8bn in investment, the authors claim.

A “softer” option of staying in the single market but quitting the customs union after a transition period could see 176,000 jobs gone and a £20bn loss of investment, it went on.

Mr Khan - who campaigned for Remain and was “heartbroken” by the Brexit vote - said: “If the Government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment.”

He added: “The analysis concludes that the harder the Brexit we end up with, the bigger the potential impact on jobs, growth and living standards.”

Labour MP Wes Streeting, a supporter of the pro-EU Open Britain campaign, seized on the findings.

"Brexit and leaving the Single Market and Customs Union puts any hope of well-funded schools and hospitals and police on our streets under immediate and serious threat," he said.

"It is time the government were honest with us about the risks and at the very least worked to keep us in both the Single Market and Customs Union."