Dominic Raab tops list of big-name MPs who could lose their seat on Thursday

Posted On: 
11th December 2019

Dominic Raab is one of the big names who could be unseated in Thursday’s election, according to new analysis by YouGov

Dominic Raab has held his seat in Esher and Walton since 2010.
Credit: 
PA

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It says the Foreign Secretary’s 23,000-strong majority in Esher and Walton could be overturned by the Liberal Democrats, who are currently just 2% behind him.

Mr Raab topped a list compiled by YouGov for The Times which identified the seats most likely to change hands.

The analysis follows YouGov’s final poll which predicts a 28-seat majority for the Conservatives, but said a hung Parliament remained a real possibility.

Other big names in the firing line include former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith, who has a three-point lead over his Labour rival in Chingford.

Theresa Villiers, the Environment Secretary, could also be unseated by Labour in her Chipping Barnet constituency. 

Leading Tory eurosceptic Sir John Redwood could also lose his Wokingham seat to the former justice minister Phillip Lee, who is contesting the seat for the Lib Dems after defecting from the Tories.

But the Tories could seize some significant Labour seats, with veteran Labour MP Dennis Skinner tipped to lose Bolsover, which he has held since 1970.

Former shadow ministers Caroline Flint and Mary Creagh may also lose their Leave-voting seats in Don Valley and Wakefield. 

However, the poll also suggests that Labour is set to take many Remain-voting constituencies such as Putney from the Tories.

Chris Curtis, research manager at YouGov, told The Times: “Given that Labour hasn’t really increased its vote share more against Remainers than Leavers on a national level, this does imply that we have started to see an increase in tactical voting.”

Elsewhere, the Lib Dems are on course to win former London mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith’s seat in Richmond, as well as winning Winchester from former minister Stephen Brine.