The Conservatives can still win a majority amid multi-party politics – as long as we change our approach
A ballot count underway for the 2024 UK Parliamentary General Election at Southend on Sea, Essex (Avpics/Alamy)
4 min read
Despite the consensus that parliamentary majorities are increasingly difficult to attain in a multi-party system, I believe the Conservatives can win one.
To get there, though, we will have to embrace high-turnout elections and move from ‘turnout’ to persuasion campaigns.
Politicians have regarded high-turnout elections with suspicion in the past. Under first past the post (FPTP), fragmented opposition blocs and low turnout have historically allowed one of the two main parties to secure commanding majorities. Labour’s 171-seat majority in 2024 was won on 33.7 per cent of the vote – only 1.6 per cent higher than its 2019 vote share, when Boris Johnson secured an 80-seat majority.
With five parties now strong enough each to attract sizeable vote shares according to the polls, we need to change tack. Squeezing an extra three to four per cent of votes can translate into significant gains under FPTP, especially when there are more parties competing for the same pool of votes.
More in Common research after last week’s local elections showed the next party of government could win a majority with a national vote share in the high 20 per cent. Aiming for a 35 to 40 per cent vote share may no longer be realistic – nor even necessary. In a crowded political marketplace, the Conservatives cannot rely on a shrinking loyal base, however: we must broaden our appeal and communicate beyond traditional strongholds.
Multi-party politics also creates new tactical voting opportunities. More in Common polling in February found 80 per cent of Reform supporters would vote against Labour over defeating the Conservatives in a general election – only 12 per cent would vote against the Conservatives. The same polling showed 52 per cent and 56 per cent of Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters would vote against Reform respectively. The local election results suggest tactical voting is cutting in unexpected directions, including Labour and Lib Dem supporters voting Conservative in areas to block Reform gains.
With more parties competing nationally, we have greater scope for tactical vote messaging: “vote Reform, get SNP”, “vote Labour, get Green”, “vote Lib Dem, get Reform”. Sound policies and values-based campaigning must come first, but voters increasingly want to know who they can support and what result their vote is likely, or unlikely, to produce.
Persuading voters in a noisy and fragmented media environment will require treating all 650 constituencies like individual by-elections
Victory will depend less on mobilising a fixed base and more on persuading fluid voters and occasional voters. Focaldata analysis of the 2024 elections showed 15 per cent of Conservative voters in the 2019 election stayed at home in 2024; a further 20 per cent voted Reform, 11 per cent went to Labour and six per cent to Lib Dems. A meaningful share of previous non-voters, on the other hand, did turn up to vote in 2024, with 15 per cent of 2019 non-voters going to the ballot box in 2024 (six per cent of whom voted Labour and two per cent each for the other main parties).
Persuading voters in a noisy and fragmented media environment will require treating all 650 constituencies like individual by-elections, identifying and focusing on salient local concerns. The question of who runs the government and is our prime minister will be a key factor for how people vote, so we must speak to as many people as possible and take ownership of local issues.
That requires not just setting out the best policies but explaining why they are the best. Neither major party can rely on a stable electoral bloc to come out. Success now depends on why Conservative policies matter to voters who feel politically homeless or predisposed to not vote – especially those cynical about the main political parties or overwhelmed by choice.
While digital campaigning and algorithm-dependent messaging matters, authentic doorstep conversations cut through effectively. Parties that combine sophisticated data on voting intentions with in-person engagement will be best-placed to persuade voters who no longer feel attached to any political tribe.
In this new world, the Conservatives must do more than energise loyalists: we should frame elections as meaningful choices between likely outcomes in each seat, while telling voters why our policies matter. We have an opportunity to win back votes from all directions, including those who did not vote – and with a high turnout, we can gain the edge.
Tolga Inanc is an approved parliamentary candidate for the Conservative Party
