Britain Faces Its Most Volatile Local Elections In Decades
5 min read
As the country prepares to go to the polls on 7th May, Ethan Dodds, Political Campaign Manager at Total Politics, sets out the local election battles that could redraw Britain’s political map
This article was commissioned by the Total Politics Impact team for the Legislative Lookahead 2026.
In summer 2024, a triumphant Keir Starmer walked up Downing Street to cheers and flag-waving jubilation. After 14 years in opposition, Labour had returned to government with its largest majority since 1997.
Less than two years later, the mood is very different. Starmer is now the most unpopular British prime minister since modern polling began, with a YouGov net favourability rating of -54.1 It is from this unenviable position that he will lead his party into the local and devolved elections on 7th May – contests that will function as a referendum on his leadership and a high-stakes stress test for the electoral coalition that delivered Labour’s victory.
Fractures on the left
The unsteady progressive alliance that handed Keir Starmer the keys to Number 10 is now fracturing under the weight of incumbency. The Greens, under Zack Polanski’s eco-populist leadership, are capturing voters disillusioned by what they see as Labour’s lack of radicalism. Meanwhile, Your Party, the new socialist movement co-founded by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, threatens to peel away more of Labour’s progressive flank, provided it can weather the infighting that has plagued its first few months.
Among young voters, the shift is particularly stark. Green support among 18-to-25-year-olds has doubled from 16 to 32 per cent, now outstripping Labour, which has plummeted from 43 to 25 per cent.2 For a party whose electoral strength has long depended on younger generations, this erosion risks reshaping Labour’s demographic foundations beyond a mere mid-term wobble.
Pro-Gaza independents pose a further threat, particularly in urban centres. Frustration over the government’s Middle East policy has continued to fuel support for so-called “Gaza Independents”, and Labour faces the very real prospect of losing control of councils like Bradford, where a third of residents are Muslim.3 This May will reveal whether the strong performances of pro-Gaza independent candidates at the general election were isolated incidents or an early indication of a deeper realignment.
Badenoch’s first major test
For Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, the local elections are equally consequential. They offer her first nationwide test since the disastrous 2025 locals, when the party lost control of 16 county councils and fell to just 20 per cent of seats. This May, Badenoch must prove that those results were a floor rather than a ceiling.
Her most pressing threat is Reform UK, which in 2025 won 677 councillor seats (41 per cent of those contested) and seized control of 10 councils. This May, the Conservatives face a two-front war: defending their heartlands while trying to stall Reform’s advance across Outer London. These contests will test whether Badenoch can still mobilise support on the right in the face of Reform.
Badenoch will face less of a challenge in Barnet and Westminster, where control has broadly remained a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour. And in Wandsworth, the party may even be able to take control from the incumbent Labour administration.
The Blue Wall under siege
After fourteen years of Conservative government, England’s ‘Blue Wall’ – the broadly affluent, traditionally Tory Home Counties – has become some of the most competitive territory in the UK. Demographic change, Brexit aftershocks and a growing pool of politically homeless voters have made the region fertile ground for insurgent parties.
The Liberal Democrats have historically been the most established challengers in the Blue Wall. This May, they will be seeking to consolidate their gains across southern shires, targeting Conservative-held councils to push them into no overall control or form Lib Dem-led coalitions – particularly in areas where they’ve built momentum through recent by-elections and general election wins.
For every major party, the message is clear: no territory is safe, and no coalition is secure
Reform UK, however, is now a disruptive force in these shires as well. Having made clear inroads across Essex and Norfolk through by-election wins and strong general election showings, and with emerging potential in Sussex amid ongoing election postponements, Reform is challenging the Conservatives in areas once considered electorally bulletproof. Whether Reform merely dents the Tory vote or supplants the Conservatives as the dominant force on the right in the Blue Wall will be one of the defining questions of the night.
Labour’s Wales problem
Despite its 2024 dominance, Welsh Labour faces its most serious crisis since devolution. Polling shows the party trailing both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, with support falling to historic lows. The Caerphilly by-election – where Plaid surged, Reform took second, and Labour collapsed to a distant third – offered a grim preview of this new landscape.
Plaid and Reform are now both competing to become the largest party in the Senedd. While Wales’s electoral system makes outright majorities unlikely, Labour’s assumption of automatic dominance is effectively over. Possible outcomes range from a Plaid-Labour coalition to a Reform-Conservative partnership, with Reform poised to become a major opposition force even if it falls short of government. Either scenario would upend Welsh politics.
A fragmented Scotland
At the general election, the SNP suffered a dramatic collapse, losing 39 of its 48 Westminster seats. Since then, however, Labour has struggled to convert its gains into sustained momentum, partly as a result of Starmer’s poor approval ratings. This has created space for the SNP to regain ground, even if it remains far from its former dominance.
Scottish politics is now more fragmented than at any point since devolution. The SNP remains the largest party in polling but is projected to fall short of a Holyrood majority. Labour trails behind, while Reform could plausibly overtake it to become the second-largest party – a development unthinkable even two years ago.
If the SNP falls just short of a majority, its most likely partner is the Scottish Greens, despite strained relations following the collapse of the Bute House Agreement in 2024. A minority SNP government reliant on issue-by-issue cooperation may ultimately prove the most viable outcome.
A new electoral landscape
Across the UK, the pattern is the same: once-stable voting blocs are fracturing. The May elections will not only judge Starmer and Badenoch but will reveal whether the UK has moved beyond two-party competition into an era of fluid, multi-party volatility. For every major party, the message is clear: no territory is safe, and no coalition is secure.
References
- YouGov, ‘Political favourability ratings, November 2025’, 20.11.25
- ITV, ‘Greens’ support from young people doubles while Labour’s collapses, ITV poll finds’, 11.11.25
- ONS, 2021 Census, 29.11.22
