The tone of Burnham's first week has met voters where they are
4 min read
The new Prime Minister is wise to focus on the cost of living. That is the issue that will define his premiership.
I have seen six prime ministers since I ioined joined Ipsos in 2019. That turnover raises an obvious question: how confident should Andy Burnham be that he will last longer than those who came before him? And can he avoid the mistakes of his predecessor?
First impressions count
For now, the new Prime Minister appears focused on one thing above all else: demonstrating that his government really understands the pressures facing ordinary households. His first week has seen the announcement of a raft of measures aimed at easing the cost of living.
These include plans to scrap VAT on electricity bills, cap bus fares and raise a glass to much-loved pubs with an eye-catching reduction in business rates.
This focus makes sense.
Ipsos polling has consistently shown economic pessimism at historically high levels in recent years. Meanwhile, our new report, Understanding Society: From Walkmans to WiFi to What?, finds that only 53 per cent of Britons are satisfied with their standard of living today, compared with 72 per cent in 1989. At this year's local elections, the cost of living was also the number one issue on the minds of English voters.
Burnham and his team will know that any PM promising change must persuade voters he “gets it”.
The importance of starting well
Anyone who follows Ipsos long-term trends will be conscious of the need to start well.
Recent Ipsos analysis of Keir Starmer’s premiership showed that his honeymoon period was remarkably short. Starmer began his premiership with a net favourability rating of +7 in July 2024 but by October had fallen to -26.
Early controversies, including the so-called freebies row and the backlash over means-testing winter fuel payments, proved politically damaging and created an impression of a government struggling to connect with public concerns. Burnham will be hoping to avoid a similar fate.
A pessimistic public
Yet he enters office facing a public that is arguably more pessimistic than at any point in recent decades. Our report shows that 83 per cent of people believe Britain is heading in the wrong direction today, compared with 55 per cent in 1989.
When people are asked what is bad about life in Britain, concerns about the cost of living and dissatisfaction with government feature prominently.
That dissatisfaction runs deep. Almost half of the public (47 per cent) now say the system of government in Britain needs a great deal of improvement – more than three times the proportion saying the same in the early 1970s. Trust in traditional politics has weakened significantly, helping to fuel the rise of challenger parties on both the left and right.
The electoral consequences have been profound. For much of the post-war era, more than seven in ten voters backed either Labour or the Conservatives.
Today, support for the two main parties combined is often closer to four in ten. The fragmentation of British politics means governments can no longer assume they will automatically be given the benefit of the doubt.
Meeting the challenge
That is the backdrop against which Burnham begins his premiership.
His instinct to focus on the cost of living appears politically sound. He is meeting the public where they are, with more than 7 in 10 concerned about the cost of living for them personally.
The issue matters to voters and offers a clear opportunity to demonstrate that his government can improve people's lives. Starmer's failure to establish a positive narrative early on proved difficult to reverse.
The challenge for Burnham is that he faces a public which is deeply sceptical not just about politicians, but about whether politics itself can deliver meaningful change.
But “the benefit of the doubt” clearly seems to be there for now. Exclusive data for PoliticsHome shows that a significant chunk of voters (42 per cent) has neither a positive nor negative view of him at present. And 54 per cent did not express a view on whether he would do a good job or a bad job on the cost of living specifically.
Whether it still exists in six months will depend on whether voters feel their lives are starting to improve.
That, more than any announcement made during his first week, is likely to determine whether Burnham's premiership succeeds where Starmer's ultimately failed.
Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos
