Keir Starmer's Daunting In-Tray

The Prime Minister hit one year in Downing Street when MPs departed Westminster in July.

Rather than a moment for celebration for the government, however, it was a time to reflect on a difficult first 12 months in office. Many Labour MPs left for their constituencies frustrated with what they felt had been a squandered first year in power, complaining about a policy programme overshadowed by government missteps and poor communications.

At the same time, Labour has watched Nigel Farage's Reform UK rise in the polls, while its own popularity has fallen sharply.

The Prime Minister will be keen to hit the ground running when Parliament returns on Monday, and the government has lots planned between now and Christmas.

But tight economic constraints mean the Labour government faces more tricky decisions at a time when restless voters want to feel positive change, and huge international challenges are not going away anytime soon.

Here are the big items in the government's in-tray.

The economy

The biggest moment between now and the end of the year will almost certainly be Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget, expected to take place in early November.

Reeves has previously described last year's tax-raising Budget event as a one-off, following backlash against decisions like increasing National Insurance employer contributions.

However, the under-pressure Labour administration is heading into this key Autumn period in unenviable economic circumstances, with growth continuing to be elusive and the cost of government borrowing rising.

The government faces the challenge of balancing its strict fiscal rules with departmental demands and political pressure to make the public feel like the country is getting better.

For example, Starmer is under pressure from many Labour MPs to lift the two-child cap when the long-anticipated child poverty strategy is published in the Autumn. The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank estimates that doing so could lift 540,000 children out of poverty, but Treasury figures will be mindful of the cost.

Eyes will be on the Office for Budget Responsibility's new economic forecasts, published alongside the Budget, setting out the state of the nation's public finances.

Health

The NHS is also shaping up to be a tricky area for the government in the coming months.

Negotiations with resident doctors over pay have shown little sign of being resolved up to now, while ministers are braced for the possibility that industrial action could spread to other NHS staff, such as senior doctors and nurses, as reported by PoliticsHome.

An extended period of strikes could derail the Department for Health's waiting list targets, which are a core part of Labour's programme for government.

The health service is expecting demand to rise significantly when winter pressures kick in.

In Parliament, there will be a lot of focus in the House of Lords, where peers will get a chance to scrutinise the Assisted Dying Bill. The unelected chamber is expected to make major changes to the legislation, with Lord (Mark) Harper telling PoliticsHome in June that MPs leaving peers to iron out issues is a "terrible dereliction of duty".

Education

A major talking point in the coming weeks will be how the government proposes reforming the under-pressure special educational needs and disabilities, commonly referred to as SEND. Details are set to be published in the Schools White Paper. 

The government is keen to avoid a repeat of the welfare rebellion earlier this year, when dozens of Labour MPs defied Starmer over planned cuts and forced him into a major climbdown.

A backbench outreach operation was already underway before the summer recess, with PoliticsHome reporting that Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson was regularly having lunches with Labour MPs.

Universities will also be anxious to see how ministers plan to fix the finances of another part of the education sector that has been left in crisis after years of a real-term decrease in the value of domestic student fees and a fall in the number of international students.

Home affairs

Starmer and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will remain under intense pressure to bring down the number of small boats crossing the English Channel. 

The government is hopeful that its "one-in, one-out" agreement with France will start to have an effect in the next few weeks, though there are concerns, according to The Times, that Emmanuel Macron's commitment to intercept small boats before they reach British shores could be complicated by a confidence vote in the French government.

Autumn is also likely to bring the outcome of Cooper’s review of Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which guarantees the right to family life.

The ECHR debate is likely to continue when Parliament returns, with senior Labour figures Jack Straw and David Blunkett, both former home secretaries, recently urging Starmer to detach from the treaty as a way of making it easier to tackle illegal immigration.

Farage has already committed Reform to withdrawing the UK from the human rights treaty, though this week faced criticism after saying he'd negotiate the Good Friday Agreement peace deal to make it happen, while Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is expected to commit to leaving the ECHR at her party's conference in Manchester in October.

Elsewhere, the Home Office is expected to set out how it plans to reform the police sector amid warnings that officer numbers are falling, while the government is also expected to publish its strategy for halving violence against women and girls within a decade. Both issues come with questions of funding as Reeves tries to stick to her strict fiscal rules.

Whether the government decides to adopt a new definition of Islamophobia will be another big question this Autumn.

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has asked a working group led by former Tory attorney general Dominic Grieve to look at whether a definition is needed to tackle anti-Muslim hate in the UK. However, critics, who include Blue Labour founder Lord Glasman, have warned that doing so would curtail free speech and exacerbate community tensions.

World affairs

The Prime Minister can reasonably expect to spend plenty of time overseas between now and Christmas as part of his busy foreign affairs agenda.

Starmer and other Western leaders continue to work on bringing peace to Ukraine and developing a "coalition of the willing" to defend the country from future Russian aggression. This could include responding to a trilateral meeting between US President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Speaking of Trump, there is also the not-so-small matter of his second state visit to the UK in mid-September, and all the usual professional safety hazards that come with hosting the unpredictable leader of the free world.

The Prime Minister looks set to recognise the state of Palestine at the UN General Assembly next month, further straining the UK's relationship with Israel over the latter's conduct in its war with Hamas in Gaza.

The Labour government will also continue its attempts to walk the tightrope on its economic ties with Beijing as Rayner prepares to decide whether to approve planning permission for a Chinese "super embassy" in London.

The politics

The Prime Minister must navigate this busy period and the tough decisions therein while keeping his huge Parliamentary Labour Party on side and trying to improve his public image.

A reshuffle could take place as soon as next week, though there are suggestions that changes will focus on mid-ranking ministers in a bid to promote impressive backbenchers, rather than at Cabinet level.

Labour MPs will be keen to see an improvement in how Starmer and his No 10 team deal with them following widespread claims that poor treatment of the backbenches played a part in the huge welfare rebellion before summer recess.

The Prime Minister will travel to Liverpool in late September to deliver his party conference speech. The Labour leader will likely be under pressure to reassure nervous party members that he can turn things around ahead of the next general election.

The PM can be expected to continue taking the fight to Farage as the Labour government tries to identify chinks in Reform UK's armour, especially with challenging elections in London, Wales and Scotland looming next year.

For Starmer, a busy few months await, and the stakes are high.

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