Makerfield and the long history of by-election upsets
Darlington by-election 1983 SDP-Liberal Alliance candidate, Tony Cook (l) out campaigning
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The Lib Dems love a good by-election – but, as Alistair Carmichael ruefully acknowledges, the favour is not always returned
The Lib Dem love affair with by-elections probably started in 1963, when Eric Lubbock stormed to victory in Orpington. After decades in the electoral doldrums, we snatched a formerly safe Conservative seat and we have been hooked ever since.
Of course, in Lubbock’s days it was possible for a by-election result to come as a genuine surprise. In an age before 24-hour news channels, social media and internet polling, a big by-election swing would genuinely come out of the blue and, with the element of surprise, could also bring political oxygen and a bounce in the polls.
The predictions that come with big by-elections are rarely borne out. Sadly, the boast following by-election wins – for greats like Shirley Williams and Roy Jenkins – that the mould of British politics had been broken, turned out not to be true.
Thankfully, however, the predictions of a Lib Dem demise – after we finished behind the Hamilton Academicals’ Fan Club candidate in the Hamilton by-election of 1999 – were equally overstated.
To say that they don’t always meet their billing is not to deny their occasional lasting impact. By-elections can often be the coup de grâce for unpopular policies or struggling leaders.
The poll tax may have sparked riots on the streets of London, but it was a string of by-election losses in previously safe Tory seats that finally persuaded the then Conservative government to ditch it and later their leader, Margaret Thatcher.
So, will we be adding Makerfield to that list of memorable by-election dramas? Almost certainly, although, as I write this, the reason is still to be determined.
Future political histories may give it a chapter to itself, recounting the bold and gutsy move of the man who went on to become prime minister. Alternatively, it may become a footnote referencing a long-forgotten figure who reached for the stars and failed. There will, I suspect, be nothing between the two extremes.
That a by-election should be the path to 10 Downing Street is rare, but not without precedent. In 1963, it was a by-election in Perth that allowed Alec Douglas-Home to move from the red benches to the green and hence to No 10.
The by-election circus is a tame affair these days compared to the contests of yesteryear. Gone are the days of daily press conferences and packed-out public meetings. No longer are we entertained by the likes of the late Vincent Hanna skewering some poor unsuspecting and unprepared candidate. Like real circuses, the big beasts are no longer there.
By-elections can often be the coup de grâce for unpopular policies or struggling leaders
In 1983, the SDP-Liberal Alliance campaign in the Darlington by-election came to grief when its candidate was caught on TV nodding in agreement with Screaming Lord Sutch (Monster Raving Loony Party). The campaign stalled, never recovered and he finished a distant third.
As a footnote to that particular incident, let me now reveal that, a week or so afterwards, I was in the overspill audience of a public meeting where Shirley Williams was speaking. From behind me there came repeated “hear hear” and “good point”. Turning to identify the source I was surprised to find that it was none other than Lord Sutch himself.
For a Social Democrat to agree with a loony was the political kiss of death but for a loony to agree with a Social Democrat did no harm whatsoever.
Lord Sutch went on to feature in by-election campaigns for many years after that and ultimately finished off the Owenite SDP by beating them in the 1990 Bootle by-election.
Life is rarely fair. Always true but never more so than in a by-election.
Andy, Keir, Nigel et al – you have been warned.
Alistair Carmichael is the Liberal Democrat MP for Orkney and Shetland
