Our historic Conservative win in Scotland was a victory for oil, gas and Kemi Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch with Douglas Lumsden on 16 June (PA Images/Alamy)
4 min read
Earlier this month, Douglas Lumsden won the first by-election in Scotland for the Conservative Party since 1967.
Many colleagues from across the House have asked me what has changed. How did we flip a seat, previously held by the leader of the SNP in Westminster, to the Conservatives – and how did we do it so resoundingly?
The answer is, like always in politics, manifold. Firstly, we turned the election into a referendum on oil and gas. Aberdeen South is among the most affected by Ed Miliband’s net-zero policies. It’s an area that has always relied heavily on its natural resources for careers and livelihoods, and the UK has relied on them for many of its crucial products.
Since Miliband took over as Energy Secretary, the country has lost 1,000 jobs a month in the sector, and few places have been as heavily impacted as Aberdeen South. You can feel it, walking along the streets in the constituency. Empty houses, for sale signs, and businesses shutting down. The by-election result was a resounding rejection of Miliband’s devastating energy policies and a vote for the Conservative Party’s pledge to get Britain drilling.
Second, this result is recognition that the Conservative Party has changed under new leadership and a vote of confidence in Kemi Badenoch. Kemi visited Aberdeen South three times during the campaign, speaking to energy workers and ordinary constituents about how the SNP and Labour have let them down and reassuring them that the Conservatives were fighting in their corner. Time and again, her visits were noted at the doorstep, with her personal popularity finally translating into votes.
Third, we put forward an excellent candidate in Douglas Lumsden, formerly an MSP for the Northeast Scotland region and an oil and gas worker from Aberdeen. A lot of behind-the-scenes work goes into a campaign – campaign managers, strategists, pollsters, etc – but an election is often won or lost by the quality of the candidate. Douglas led from the front, campaigning 12 hours a day, always with a smile on his face. He met and thanked every volunteer who came out to campaign for him, often through torrential rain and occasionally in freezing conditions (yes, I’m describing June in Aberdeen).
Under Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party is once more an electable force in Scotland
In terms of the results, we saw a collapse of the SNP vote. While Peter Murrell’s sentencing undoubtedly played a part in this – another reason to question its timing after the Holyrood elections – the overall failure of the SNP to deliver meaningful change was most evident. The SNP have presided over deteriorating educational standards, and some of the worst NHS waiting times in the UK. The SNP vote simply did not turn out.
Reform UK was also a non-entity. It gained well under 10 per cent of the vote in both Scottish seats, putting a spanner in the works of Malcolm Offord’s ambition, “I’m in this to be first minister.”
And finally, Labour stayed at home. Labour’s vote fell by over 86.47 per cent. Only recently, Anas Sarwar was the favourite to become first minister of Scotland. Labour now looks further from power in Scotland than ever. But it wasn’t just Labour voters staying at home – they turned up for us. Many voters who had always supported Labour voted Conservative to keep the SNP out. We don’t take these votes for granted.
Under Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative Party is once more an electable force in Scotland. Reform was irrelevant, losing heavily in both Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, and the SNP faced a resounding rejection of their and Miliband’s destructive net-zero policies.
It was a message from those who work in the oil and gas sector that we must keep drilling, not just for the essential products it provides the country but because thousands of skilled jobs depend on it.
But, most importantly, Aberdeen South has gained a brilliant new MP in Douglas Lumsden, who will advocate for all his constituents and, of course, continue to champion the oil and gas sector in Scotland.
Andrew Bowie is the Conservative MP for West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, and shadow Scotland secretary
