UK adspend rose 8% to reach £10.6bn in Q1 2025
Total adspend forecast to increase by 6.8% to £45.4bn for FY2025
London, July 29, 2025: The latest AA/WARC Expenditure Report reveals UK advertising spend rose 8% to a total of £10.6bn in the first three months of 2025, +1.4 percentage points (pp) ahead of the April forecast. Data shows this increase was predominantly caused by an improved performance for search (including retail media) (+12.3%).
The UK advertising market is forecast to grow by 6.8% this year to £45.4bn, a slight increase (0.4 pp) since the April forecast. While AA/WARC expects the UK’s overall GDP growth to remain relatively flat at 1.1% in 2025, UK adspend is still expected to see 3.5% growth, after inflation. Channels expected to make gains in 2025 include TV Video-On-Demand (VOD) (+10.1%), search (+9.4%), online display (+9.2%), cinema (+9.0%), out of home (+3.1%) and radio (+1.2%).
Despite ongoing economic challenges, including a recent jump in UK inflation to 3.6%, both consumer and business confidence in the UK have shown an improvement in June.
Looking ahead, AA/WARC’s forecast remains unchanged for 2026, with the advertising market expected to grow 5.6% to reach £48.0bn. According to the AA’s recent report Advertising Pays 2025, advertising accounted for 4% of total UK GVA in 2024, reinforcing its value as a key driver of economic growth.
Q1 in Depth
Results for Q1 were led by an improved outcome for search (including retail media) (+12.3%) and strong growth for online display (+10.1%, including social media on +14.7%). Both channels benefited from budgets being brought forward in the quarter, particularly as advertisers sought more short-term solutions during uncertainty caused by the period of negotiation of the US administration’s trade deals. While there is more certainty in the UK economy now a trade deal has been secured, global macroeconomic headwinds persist.
Media channels which saw a positive Q1 2025 include cinema (+19.2%), online radio (+16.4%), search (+12.3%), online display (+10.1%),TV VOD (+5.4%) and direct mail (+3.6%). Big budget releases for cinema earlier this year included titles such as Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy and Captain America: Brave New World, while Mufasa: The Lion King and Wicked continued to perform well in the new year.
Similarly, online radio has been showing strong double-digit growth over the last four quarters as radio listening continues to benefit from new technology.
Stephen Woodford, Chief Executive, Advertising Association said: “Further growth in the first quarter of 2025 is welcome, particularly following the launch of the UK Government’s new industrial strategy which recognises advertising as a priority sector.
The announcement that brand advertising will be exempt from the incoming Less Healthy Food restrictions has also provided important clarity for advertisers, ahead of the industry’s agreement to implement these from October 2025.
With our latest Ad Pays 2025 report showing advertising supports 1.7 million jobs, we will continue to monitor advertising expenditure and work with Government to highlight advertising’s contribution to the UK economy.”
James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC, said: “The latest survey data highlights buoyancy in certain corners of the UK ad market, with total investment growing just ahead of forecast despite a wavering economy and a sustained period of global trade turbulence. Advertisers were seen to pull budgets forward and double down on agile formats within search, social, and retail media in response to the volatility sparked by new US tariffs. Brands appear to be adapting to the current environment by reallocating budgets tactically, with the outlook for the year remaining broadly positive despite persistent headwinds.”
The quarterly Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report is the definitive guide to advertising expenditure in the UK, with data for all key advertising media and sub formats dating back to 1982 and forecasts spanning eight quarters ahead.
ENDS
For more information, please contact:
Advertising Association
Matt Bourn, Director of Communications
Matt.Bourn@adassoc.org.uk
Mariella Brown, Senior Communications Manager
Mariella.Brown@adassoc.org.uk
WARC
Amanda Benfell, Head of PR & Press
amanda.benfell@warc.com
T: +44 (0) 20 7467 8125
About the Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure Report
The Advertising Association/WARC quarterly Expenditure Report is the definitive guide to advertising expenditure in the UK. Impartial and independent of any media channel or agency affiliation, it is the only source of historical quarterly ad spend data and forecasts for the different media for the coming eight quarters. With data from 1982, this comprehensive and detailed review of advertising spend includes the AA/WARC’s own quarterly survey of all national newspapers, regional newspaper data collated in conjunction with Local Media Works and magazine statistics from WARC’s own panels. Data for other media channels are compiled in conjunction with UK industry trade bodies and organisations, notably the Internet Advertising Bureau, Outsmart, Radiocentre and the Royal Mail.
All data are net of discounts and include agency commission, but exclude production costs. The survey was launched in 1981 and has produced data on a quarterly basis ever since.
Methodology for WARC’s quarterly forecasts
Analysis of annual ad spend data over the past 35 years shows that there is a link between annual changes in GDP and annual changes in ad spend (after allowing for inflation, and excluding recruitment ad spend). Over this period, GDP changes account for about two thirds of the change in ad spend. WARC has developed its own forecasting model to generate forecasts for two years based on assumptions about future economic growth. The model provides an indication of likely overall spend levels – adjusted to allow for short-term factors (Olympics, World Cup etc).
The Expenditure Report (www.warc.com/expenditurereport) launched online in February 2010 and combines data from the discontinued print publications the Quarterly Survey of Advertising Expenditure and the Advertising Forecast. It is relied upon daily by the world’s largest brands, ad agencies, media owners, investment banks and academic institutions. Alongside over 200 readymade tables, subscribers can create their own customised tables for analysis of different media and time periods, as well as track the different media’s share of ad spend. All reports can be exported from the online interface. An annual subscription is priced at £760 for AA members and £1,175 for nonmembers.
About the Advertising Association
The Advertising Association promotes the role and rights of responsible advertising - trusted, inclusive, and sustainable – and its value to people, society, businesses, and the economy. Responsible businesses understand that there is little point in an advertisement that people cannot trust. That's why, over 50 years ago, the Advertising Association led UK advertising towards a system of independent self-regulation which has since been adopted around the world. There are nearly thirty UK trade associations representing advertising, media, and marketing. Through the Advertising Association they come together with a single voice when speaking to policy makers and influencers.
About WARC – The global authority on marketing effectiveness
For over 35 years WARC has been powering the marketing segment by providing rigorous and unbiased evidence, expertise and guidance to make marketers more effective. Across four platforms - WARC Strategy, WARC Creative, WARC Media, WARC Digital Commerce – its services include 100,000+ case studies, best practice guides, research papers, special reports, advertising trend data, news & opinion articles, as well as awards, events and advisory services. WARC operates out of London, New York and Singapore, servicing a community of over 75,000 marketers in more than 1,300 companies across 100+ markets and collaborates with 50+ industry partners.
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