Research Shows Burnham Boosts Labour Chances Of Fending Off The Greens
6 min read
Andy Burnham will put Labour in a stronger position to win back voters it is at risk of losing to Zack Polanski's Greens, new research for PoliticsHome has found.
The new nationwide survey, carried out late last month by the research organisation Thinks Insight & Strategy, also suggests that the prime minister-in-waiting will help shore up Labour's right flank against Reform UK.
Ben Shimshon, co-founder and CEO of Thinks Insight & Strategy, said Burnham "definitely opens a window of opportunity" for Labour and "should give the party real hope".
However, the findings also indicate that the public will expect Burnham to deliver change quickly after he enters Downing Street, which is expected to happen later this month.
The research is based on an online survey of 2,079 people between 24-25 June, alongside four focus groups with people who voted Labour at the 2024 general election but are now considering either the Greens or Nigel Farage's Reform.
The fieldwork was conducted after both Burnham's victory in the Makerfield by-election and Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation announcement.
The results, shared exclusively with PoliticsHome, suggest that Burnham is currently well-placed to improve Labour's electoral prospects as it tries to rebuild support ahead of the next general election.
Burnham will almost certainly replace Starmer in No 10 later this month after securing his return to the House of Commons in emphatic fashion in June.
Among those who voted Labour two years ago, a third (33 per cent) told the survey that a Burnham leadership made them more likely to vote for the party again next time around, while 12 per cent said it made them less likely.
The survey for PoliticsHome found that the former Greater Manchester mayor is particularly popular with 2024 Labour voters now considering the Greens, with 44 per cent of this group saying they were more likely to vote Labour with Burnham as leader.
This is higher than any other group of Labour 2024 voters now considering other parties.
Equal shares of 2024 Labour voters who are considering the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats (both 33 per cent) say they are likelier to vote Labour with Burnham as leader, as did 31 per cent of those now looking at Reform. Thirty-nine per cent of 2024 Labour voters who are currently considering Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain said they were more likely to stick with Labour under Burnham, though this was based on a small sample.
"For Labour, Burnham definitely opens a window of opportunity. Both 2024 Labour voters who are now considering Green, and, to a slightly lesser extent, those who are now considering Reform UK, are more likely than average to say that Keir Starmer’s replacement increases their chance of voting Labour. That should give the party real hope," said Shimshon.
"But it also speaks to the tightrope Burnham needs to walk, as these voters have very different priorities, and want very different things from their government."
He added: "Across the survey and in the focus groups, the hope is both low-definition and low-patience: voters don’t know much about ‘Andy’ - they like his vibes, his accent and his manner - but they’re not yet convinced he’s truly different."
If, as expected, Burnham becomes the UK's seventh PM in a decade later this month, he will be under pressure to deliver results quickly, the findings suggest.
Over half of respondents (54 per cent) said they would know within six months whether a new prime minister was doing a good job, and only 19 per cent said they would give them longer than that. Twelve per cent said they would know straight away. 2024 Green voters were the most patient, while Reform voters were the least patient.
Just over half of respondents (51 per cent) said that if Burnham is effective as PM, they would see real improvements within a year of him entering office, while 37 per cent said it would take at least a year or two.
Thinks Insight & Strategy research found that 38 per cent of 2024 Labour voters who are considering the Greens say they're more likely to stick with Labour with Burnham as leader (Alamy)
These results suggest that voters are willing to be less patient with Burnham than they were with Starmer when he first entered No 10 following Labour's 2024 election victory.
In early July 2024, nearly two-thirds of people (62 per cent) told Thinks Insight & Strategy research for PoliticsHome that even if the Starmer administration was effective, "it will take a year or two before we start seeing improvement."
On a Burnham premiership, Shimshon added: "The direction of travel needs to be clear within 12 months, and whatever it is, that direction needs to feel like change."
Farage and Reform have called on Burnham to call a snap election after becoming PM, arguing that he will not have a proper mandate to govern.
Even some on Burnham's own side have said he should go to the country. Alan Johnson, the former Labour cabinet minister, has said the incoming PM should call a snap election because the mandate he'll soon inherit was "gifted to him" by Starmer.
On the question of whether Burnham should call a snap election after entering Downing Street, public opinion broadly breaks down along party lines.
Overall, around a third (34 per cent) of people said that a new PM should call a general election as soon as possible after taking office. This was particularly pronounced among 2024 Reform (68 per cent) and Conservative (52 per cent) voters, while just 20 per cent of 2024 Labour voters agreed.
Nearly half of respondents (46 per cent) said the new PM should be bound by the 2024 manifesto, while 35 per cent said they should be free to break from it.
However, the same proportion (46 per cent) told the survey that Burnham must deliver change, even if it means breaking some promises made two years ago.
“In the abstract, voters cleave to the idea that the ‘right and proper’ thing to do is to stick to the manifesto (even though very few among the electorate will ever have familiarised themselves with it)," said Shimshon.
"What this shows is that, when it comes down to it, most voters would trade that off against seeing the change they so badly want actually happen."
