Westminster Labour “Slow To Realise” The Electoral Threat In Wales, Says First Minister
5 min read
Labour figures in Westminster have been slow to truly realise the electoral danger facing the party in Wales, their leader in Cardiff has said.
Speaking to PoliticsHome at Labour Party conference in Liverpool, First Minister of Wales Eluned Morgan said the "key thing" she wanted to achieve in Merseyside was focusing the minds of colleagues on "what's at stake" at May's Senedd elections.
“[We need to] make sure they understand that they have a responsibility [to] support us. Not for the sake of Wales, but for the sake of the wider party as well," she said.
“I think they’ve been slow to realise it. I think they’re starting to wake up.”
Labour has been the dominant force in Welsh politics for decades, controlling the Senedd since the devolved parliament was set up at the turn of the 21st century and winning the most votes and seats in every UK general election.
Welsh Labour figures have played a key role in the party's history, too, with founder Keir Hardie and former leaders Jim Callaghan and Michael Foot representing Welsh constituencies. Neil Kinnock, who led the party in opposition from 1983 to 1992, is Welsh.
However, present-day party figures fear collapse awaits them when Senedd elections take place in May, with recent opinion polls showing the party bleeding support to Reform UK on the right and Plaid Cymru on the left. A YouGov poll in September put Labour a distant third on 14 per cent, behind Reform on 29 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 30 per cent.
“I was aware that when you’ve been in power for 26 years, there is a danger that you disconnect," Morgan told PoliticsHome.
“[The] first thing I did was to get out on the streets and to listen to people. I went the whole way around Wales and just heard what they had to say. It was raw, it was unfiltered, and I came back with what their priorities were.
“I've really tried hard to get to what it is that they're really concerned about," she said, listing jobs, the NHS, public transport, housing and fixing potholes.
Morgan, who became First Minister of Wales in August 2024, succeeding Vaughan Gething, rejected that her party was on course to lose power next year, describing recent opinion polling as "volatile".
“I'm not accepting that [we’re going to lose]. We're going to fight for every vote. We know we’ve got a challenge on our hands, and what's important now is that we do that listening and that we make a really good forward offer.”
A record 75 Conservative MPs stood down in the run-up to last year's general election, in what at the time was interpreted as a sign that the party was heading for heavy losses. In Wales, over a quarter of Labour Senedd members are stepping down ahead of the 2026 elections, including former first ministers Mark Drakeford and Vaughan Gething.
Morgan dismissed the idea that this was analogous, however, telling PoliticsHome that colleagues were leaving politics because of their age.
“Most of them are pensioners. Most of them have been at this for a very, very long time. It's simply: They're older people and they've absolutely given their all and they recognise, it's time to bring on the new generation.”
If recent polls are correct, then Plaid and Reform will emerge from the May elections as the two largest parties in Wales — a result that would turn Welsh politics on its head and send shockwaves across the rest of the UK.
Morgan, who is a peer, said the two parties are "different forms of nationalism".
"The nationalism of Reform is a nationalism that divides our communities, that tries to… split our communities apart and take on people who are making a valued contribution to our communities. In my area, for example, almost 50 per cent of the doctors and dentists have trained overseas...
"I don't think it's sensible to take on the people who are running our public services.”
On Plaid, she said it was “cheeky” for Welsh nationalists to demand more financial support from Westminster while wanting to split Wales from the UK. “If you're a nationalist who wants independence, you can't have it both ways," she said.
That said, while Morgan categorically ruled out serving in coalition with Nigel Farage's Reform, she left the door open to sharing power with Plaid, which is led by Rhun ap Iorwerth.
While Labour has been in power since the Senedd was established over 25 years ago, it has always governed as a minority administration or in coalition with other parties due to not having enough votes to lead a majority government. If Plaid or Reform are the largest party but fall short of a majority, they may need the support of Labour or the Tories to govern.
“I've said very clearly that I wouldn't work with Reform. I'm not going into any detail about anything else until after the elections. We don't know what's going to happen," she said.
Farage's name was ubiquitous at Labour conference in Liverpool, where the electoral threat posed by Reform was one of the biggest talking points among ministers and MPs.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer started conference by calling Reform's legal migration policy racist, and went on to devote major chunks of his conference speech to attacking the Reform leader. Farage was also accused by Cabinet ministers of being a threat to the NHS and national security. Health Secretary Wes Streeting called him a "snake oil salesman".
Morgan said Farage "knows nothing" about Wales and described his recent call to reopen mines there as a "ridiculous proposition".
"He knows nothing about the country. He comes in and pretends that he does...
"I'm interested in the future. I'm interested in a digital revolution for Wales. I'm interested in renewable energy, transforming our economy. That’s my vision, not sending people back down the pits."
She admitted, however, that there are things that Labour figures could learn from their fierce opponent, particularly his ability to connect with voters.
“I think his communication skills are incredible. I don't know who runs this operation, but clearly, he is able to [connect] in the way that we're all struggling to... We can definitely learn on the communication side of things, but it's easier to do if you're not a serious party."
