Falling Pupil Numbers In London Could Cost Schools £45m In Funding, Warns New Report
The government has forecast that the number of pupils in state schools across England will fall by 400,000 by 2030 (Alamy)
4 min read
London schools face losing £45m in funding over the next four years as a result of falling pupil numbers, analysis shared exclusively with PoliticsHome suggests.
The new report, produced by London Councils, which represents all 32 boroughs and the City of London Corporation, estimates that a fall in pupil numbers in the capital could equate to a loss of £15m in funding for primary schools and £30m in funding for secondary schools between 2025-26 and 2029-30.
Schools are funded by the government on a per-pupil model, meaning a fall in numbers directly hits the money that schools receive.
Councils across London are concerned about the implications of falling pupil numbers and subsequent reduced funding on school standards and pupil attainment at a time when budgets are already under pressure. Without additional support, London Councils is concerned that the trend risks "limiting young people’s education and widening inequalities".
The figures come amid wider warnings about the impact of the falling birth rate following a post-millennium baby boom, as well as an exodus from the capital as families seek more affordable housing.
The average house price in London is £553,258, while the average house price nationwide is £271,188. The Labour government has pledged to significantly increase supply, which it hopes in turn will drive down prices, by building 1.5m houses by the end of this Parliament.
In December, The House Magazine reported growing cross-party concern about the issue of falling birth rates and how it risks a shrinking workforce, reduced tax revenues, and state pensions becoming increasingly unaffordable.
Cabinet Office minister and Labour MP Josh Simons told the magazine: “There are few better examples than the fundamental incompatibility between the things we want our state to do, our birth rate of 1.41, and a clear preference to reduce migration. Those things cannot all remain true. One of them has to give.”
London Councils' findings, set to be published in an upcoming report, are based on school capacity data collected from 32 London boroughs, excluding the City of London.
The impact of falling pupil numbers is expected to be felt most acutely in Inner London, where the number of people moving out of the area due to high housing costs is most acute.
The impact of falling pupil numbers, also known as falling rolls, has been well-documented in recent years, with the Department for Education (DfE) forecasting that the number of pupils in state schools across England would decline by nearly 400,000 by 2030.
Projections suggest that Inner London faces the sharpest drop in demand for Year 7 places for the first time, which are expected to fall by 7.6 per cent, outstripping an estimated 6.4 per cent fall in Reception places over the next four years.
Boroughs in South West London are expected to see the sharpest decrease — an estimated 7.3 per cent fall.
Data collected from all London local authorities shows an anticipated reduction of 2.5 per cent in demand for Reception places, the main entry point to primary school, and 3.8 per cent for Year 7, the start of secondary school, despite a small number of boroughs expecting growth.
The projected falls come at a time when schools are already reporting strained budgets. A survey by London Councils last year found that just over one quarter of all local authority-maintained schools in London were in deficit in 2024-25.
London Council estimates that between 2019 and the summer of 2025, there have been approximately 90 school closures or mergers in London as a result of reduced demand, with further closures expected in the coming years.
London Councils’ executive member for children and young people, Cllr Ian Edwards, said falling pupil numbers "are putting real pressure on school budgets".
"Without action to reflect London’s circumstances, schools risk having to narrow the curriculum and reduce vital support for pupils,” he told PoliticsHome.
Edwards called for the government to "work with London Councils and key education partners to support the secondary sector to mitigate the impact of falling rolls, with a particular focus on maintaining a broad and balanced curriculum, sustaining enrichment opportunities, and protecting inclusive special educational needs provision".
PoliticsHome has contacted the Department for Education for comment.
