How Keir Starmer Could Be Replaced As Prime Minister
There is growing speculation in Westminister that Keir Starmer will not lead Labour into the next election. (Alamy)
6 min read
Speculation in Westminster is growing that Labour leader and Prime Minister Keir Starmer may not be in No 10 by the next election.
Just 14 months into his premiership – and following the painful departures of deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner, US ambassador Lord Peter Mandelson, and political strategy director Paul Ovenden – there are questions over whether Keir Starmer will lead Labour into the next election.
Starmer's lack of popularity with the British public and poor national polling have fuelled further speculation.
Local elections in May are now increasingly expected to be one of the key factors in whether or not Starmer will remain as Prime Minister, with current polling predicting heavy losses for Labour.
There are two main paths to replacing a Labour prime minister, with the process differing significantly from that of the Conservative Party, which saw its leader replaced several times during the last time it was in power.
Labour leader resignation
Starmer's resignation is the most straightforward way he could be replaced. If he were to resign, it would trigger a leadership contest, similar to the current Labour deputy leadership contest underway.
While the rules have slightly changed since 2007, the process would not be entirely dissimilar to when Sir Tony Blair resigned and was replaced by Gordon Brown.
However, then-chancellor Gordon Brown was essentially unopposed in his leadership bid to become Labour leader, meaning he ultimately became prime minister by default.
Should Starmer resign during this Labour administration, Labour MPs would be able to put themselves forward to replace Starmer.
Candidates would be required to secure 20 per cent of MPs, or 80 MPs, to be considered on the ballot paper; prior to 2021, an MP only needed 10 per cent. Alternatively, they need to be nominated by a minimum of five per cent of constituency parties or three affiliates; two of these affiliates must be trade unions.
Only party members or affiliated supporters are able to vote on the candidates that make it onto the ballot paper. Thereafter, an alternative vote – also known as a preferential ballot – is held, where voters rank their preferred candidates. Voters only have one vote.
Votes are then redistributed by ranking until one candidate receives over 50 per cent of the vote; the candidate that reaches the threshold first wins the leadership contest and becomes Labour leader and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
Labour MPs launch leadership challenge
A leadership challenge would be the most complicated and politically fraught way Starmer could be replaced as Prime Minister.
As was demonstrated in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, Labour MPs successfully tabling a vote of no confidence against their leader does not automatically result in their removal, as the vote is non-binding.
In 2019, Corbyn lost the vote by 172 to 40, but refused to resign and proceeded to lead the party to defeat at a general election in December 2019.
Therefore, for a leadership challenge to be successful in the event Starmer refused to resign, currently at least 80 MPs – or 20 per cent of sitting Labour MPs – would have to support a sitting Labour MP as a candidate to challenge Starmer.
Should Starmer refuse to leave, he is automatically entitled to be on the ballot paper as the sitting Labour leader and current prime minister. Thereafter, any Labour MPs who break the 20 per cent nomination threshold of sitting Labour MPs would make it onto the ballot paper.
The process would then be similar to what would happen if the Prime Minister resigned, with an alternative vote.
Eligible voters, who comprise members or affiliates, would rank preferred candidates. Votes would be reallocated by ranking, and the MP who reaches the 50 per cent threshold first would be elected leader of the Labour Party and the Prime Minister.
Under this system, Starmer could still remain as Prime Minister if he receives enough votes; however, it would likely deal significant damage to his political authority to have suffered a challenge.
Who are the contenders to replace Prime Minister Keir Starmer?
Of the existing cabinet members, only Lisa Nandy emerges as an MP who ran for Labour leader in 2020 after Corbyn stepped down. Nandy came third with 16.2 per cent of the vote, trailing behind Rebecca Long-Bailey, who won 27.6 per cent of the vote. Starmer won 56.2 per cent of the vote in 2020.
Elsewhere, Labour Manchester mayor Andy Burnham – who served as a minister during the Blair and Brown governments – is currently tipped as the bookies' favourite to replace Starmer, despite not currently sitting as a Labour MP. Dubbed 'King in the North' during the pandemic over his fraught relationship with the Conservative government, Burnham has repeatedly criticised Starmer's leadership.
"I see good people, good MPs, losing the whip, people like Rachael Maskell," Burnham told Sunday with Laura Kussenberg on the BBC earlier this month. "That doesn't seem fair to me. It didn't happen in the governments I was in, in Gordon Brown's government or Tony Blair's government. You know, we need a different style here, so that everyone is included and we pull together."
Despite being the bookies' favourite, Burnham is not a sitting Labour MP, meaning he would have to stand as an MP in a by-election and win to be considered as a replacement for Starmer.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting is also considered a significant contender to replace Starmer. While Streeting has been publicly supportive of Starmer, he has publicly criticised Labour for failing to provide a "coherent story". Fiercely critical of former Labour leader Corbyn, he narrowly held onto his seat at the general election last year with a majority of just 528 – potentially making him a risky option for members due to the high chance he may lose his seat at the next election.
“You've got a big public service reform agenda in justice, but… it's not wrapped up in a coherent enough story about the change that we're bringing," Streeting told the Political Currency podcast.
Other Cabinet ministers who could throw their hats into the ring include Foreign Secretary and longstanding Labour MP Yvette Cooper, who served as a minister under Blair and Brown; and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Darren Jones.
Outgoing deputy Labour leader and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner could also make a leadership bid, but any attempt to become leader is likely to be frustrated by the stamp duty errors she made that triggered her resignation.
What would the political impact be for the Labour Party?
Tim Durrant, programme director at Institute for Government (IFG), told PoliticsHome a change in leadership would likely start a public "soul-searching" for the Labour Party, similar to what is currently happening with the deputy leadership.
"It's the same debate that we're seeing with the deputy leadership: how does the Party want to position itself? What are the big priorities?" said Durrant.
"Lucy Powell criticised the stuff on the welfare bill, for example, even though she was a member of the government at that point.
"If it were people going for the leadership, I'm sure there'd be much more... soul searching of what the party is for and what it's trying to do...
"Under the Conservatives, I remember we saw all those changes each candidate came in trying to say: 'I will do things differently', even though they were from within the same party."
