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Mon, 6 April 2020

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By Dods General Election Hub 2019

Major new poll finds support for Labour collapsing as Brexit Party threatens Tory majority hopes

Major new poll finds support for Labour collapsing as Brexit Party threatens Tory majority hopes
3 min read

A major new poll has found support for Labour is collapsing across the country, while growing backing for the Brexit Party threatens Boris Johnson’s chances of securing a majority.


The latest study from YouGov of over 11,500 voters has given the Conservatives a lead in every English region apart from London and the North East, despite support for both main parties dropping across the country.

The figures will come as a boost for Boris Johnson, whose party now leads the polls in former Labour heartlands, including the North West and Yorkshire & the Humber.

The Conservative lead in the regions are driven by plummeting support for Jeremy Corbyn’s party, who have dropped 25 points in the North West to 30%, leaving the Conservatives with a narrow three point lead. In Yorkshire the same pattern has handed the Tories a five point lead.

Labour have retained their lead in the North East with 32% support, down from 55% in 2017. Meanwhile, the Tories have dropped eight points since the last election to 26%. The region also has the highest support for the Brexit Party across the country, with 19% of voters backing Nigel Farage’s party.

The figures also show a boost in support for the Liberal Democrats, whose anti-Brexit message has driven up their poll numbers in almost every region across the country.

In London, which voted heavily to Remain, the party have secured a ten-point boost to 19%, while Labour remain the largest party on 39% despite a 16-point slump since 2017.

Brexit Party

Despite claims from Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage that his party would scoop votes in areas with a high proportion of Leave voting Labour supporters, the figures show the insurgent group could derail Boris Johnson’s hopes of securing a majority as rising support for the party eats into narrow Conservative majorities.

However, the polling, carried out between 17 October and 4 November will fail to reflect the impact of a disastrous start to Boris Johnson’s campaign which saw Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns resign, and senior Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg forced to apologise over comments made about the Grenfell Tower fire.

Meanwhile, the figures also point to a resurgent SNP presence in Scotland, with the party increasing their vote share by five points to 42% as Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon pledged to push forward with a fresh independence referendum.

In Wales, Labour support has plummeted from 49% to 29%, leaving them just one point ahead of the Conservatives on 28%, while the Brexit Party sit on 15%.

The figures come as Boris Johnson hopes to convince voters his party can push through his new-look Brexit deal despite failing in his “do or die” pledge to exit the bloc by 31 October.

Meanwhile, Labour have committed to securing a fresh Brexit deal which they would put back to voters in a referendum within six month of winning the election.

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