Fears of Brexit banking exodus ‘overblown’ – new research
Fears that tens of thousands of jobs would be lost from the City of London because of Brexit will not come to fruition, according to new research by the Financial Times.
According to the newspaper, fewer than 4,600 workers will be relocated when the UK leaves the EU in March 2019.
That contradicts previous studies, some of which predicted much higher figures, including recent research by EY that claimed 10,500 people could leave on “day one”.
The FT analysed public statements by 15 of the UK’s biggest international institutions and conducted interviews with senior banking executives.
During the study, researchers found that many original relocation estimates needed to be revised down.
Goldman Sachs, whose new Frankfurt office can accommodate 1,000 people, currently expects to move fewer than 500 staff, and plans by HSBC to move “up to 1000 people” may not happen, according to its chief financial officer.
However, some senior figures said the job losses could increase over the long-term.
Chief executive of Morgan Stanley International, Rob Rooney, said: “The story has always been three to five years out, not what does it do to the City the morning after Brexit…
“If people judge it by the numbers that move [immediately] afterwards, they will miss the point.”
Another senior executive at a US bank called for greater clarity on Brexit, saying firms wanted to see “a watertight transition period that is legally robust”.
“And that needs to happen very quickly,” they added.