Economists not expecting rate rise until 2019

Posted On: 
4th September 2017

The Bank of England is not likely to raise interest rates until 2019, according to a survey of leading economists.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney
PA Images

The current rate of 0.25% is the lowest in history and has been in place since August last year, when it was cut from a previous low of 0.5%.

A BBC snap poll of economists found most do not think the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will make any change to the rate until negotiations have finished on the UK's withdrawal from the EU. 

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That is despite inflation now running at 2.6%, well above the Bank's target level of 2%. 

There are voices inside the Bank, including chief economist Andy Haldane, who have made the case for increasing rate - although governor Mark Carney said in a speech this June that "now is not yet the time" for a rise.

Opinion is divided on exactly when an increase will come - economists at Barclays, Santander, Morgan Stanley and Oxford Economists all told the BBC they did not expect any action until 2019 at the latest. 

Others predict an increase as early as May 2018, while George Buckley of Japanese bank Nomura thinks the MPC will make a move as early as this November.