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Keir Starmer set for a decisive win in Labour leadership contest - poll

2 min read

Keir Starmer is on course for a decisive win in Labour’s leadership contest, while Angela Rayner is the frontrunner in the deputy race, according to a new poll.

The poll, released by LabourList, also shows that Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband are favourites to become Shadow Chancellor, and that most members think Jeremy Corbyn should be kept out of the Shadow Cabinet. 

In the first round of the leadership contest, Mr Starmer is set to win 45% of the vote, with Ms Long-Bailey on 34% and Ms Nandy on 21%. 

The Shadow Brexit Secretary is expected to win the contest by taking the majority of Ms Nandy’s votes when she is eliminated in the second round, putting him on 64% and Ms Long-Bailey on 36% in the final run-off.

The research, conducted by Survation, comes as Mr Starmer is under pressure to reveal who is financing his leadership campaign, with Rebecca Long-Bailey and Lisa Nandy both publishing a list of donors who have given over £1,500.

In the deputy leadership contest, the poll says Ms Rayner has 35% of first preference votes, followed by Richard Burgon on 23%, Rosena Allin-Khan on 17%, Ian Murray on 14% and Dawn Butler on 10%. 

Ms Rayner’s popularity as a second preference choice means the Shadow Education Secretary is predicted to win the race in the third round of voting. 

Survey respondents said they thought Mr Starmer would position the party away from its recent direction, with 79% saying he would take the party “further to the centre”. 

In contrast, 76% said that Ms Long-Bailey would keep Labour’s stance “broadly the same”, and 18% said the Shadow Business Secretary would take the party “further to the left”. 

Voting opened on Monday, and members will be able to cast a vote until April 4.


Yvette Cooper and Ed Miliband are Labour members’ favourites to become shadow chancellor, according to the poll.

Ms Cooper, who was Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Gordon Brown, received support from 22% of members, while Mr Miliband, who led the Labour Party between 2010 and 2015, came second, winning 15% of the vote. 

Clive Lewis, currently Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is the third most popular choice, followed by Rachel Reeves, a former Bank of England economist.

The survey also showed that 54% of members think Mr Corbyn should be kept out of the Shadow Cabinet, while 35 per cent think he should be given a position. 

Survation conducted the poll between February 21 and 24, and surveyed 1,196 Labour Party members.

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