How Farage went from the Mr Marmite of politics to the Mr Millwall

In any other party you’d expect a robust conversations about a change in leadership by now.

So why aren’t we seeing that in Reform?

Despite everything that has happened, Farage’s popularity is unwavering among core Reform voters, who recognise his role over the past quarter century in bringing the party from obscurity to a point where polls suggest it could win the next general election.

In fact, his favourability rating from these voters actually increased by 8 points in the wake of Channel 4’s allegation that senior figures in Reform solicited ‘off-the-book’ donations to fund polling.

But cracks have begun to appear in the leader’s image as a straight-talking, honest alternative to the politicians whom he claims has let down the country. Indeed, our research suggests that Farage, once Reform’s greatest asset, may fast be turning into a liability.

In the electorate at large, Farage is now the least popular among the leaders of the five major UK political parties. Since June, his favourability rating with the voters Reform is most hoping to poach - those who voted Conservative in 2024 - has dropped 12 points.

Often described as the “Mr Marmite” of British politics, both loved and hated in equal measure, Farage is in danger of becoming its “Mr Millwall”, a leader who appeals only to his hardcore fans. “No one like us, we don’t care” might work as a chant on the terraces, but it makes for a poor election strategy.

Farage’s favourability rating was beginning to show signs of a comeback following his decision to step down as MP for Clacton in July and seek a fresh mandate in a by-election.

However, his re-election in Clacton failed to reignite his popularity, and the Reform leader has now returned to a downward trend, leaving him further behind Prime Minister Andy Burnham than at any point since the new PM took office

His leadership is now viewed by 50 per cent of the public as a reason not to vote for Reform, up from 40 per cent three months ago. Similarly, 48 per cent now view the party’s support from wealthy businesspeople as a reason not to vote for them, up from 39 per cent.

Reform is now the party the public associates most with financial fraud (39 per cent), breaking the law (39 per cent) and corruption (37 per cent), perceptions voters may carry into the ballot box at the next general election.

Given Farage's personal financial backing from Christopher Harborne and George Cottrell, both wealthy men whose support is now subject to criminal investigation, it seems impossible to separate the issue of alleged financial impropriety from how voters see Farage himself.

So, what should Reform do?

The party appears caught between a rock and a hard place.

Senior Reform figures, including Richard Tice, Zia Yusuf and Suella Braverman, don’t even come close to Farage’s standing among the party’s core voters. When asked who should take over if they had to choose, more Reform voters picked ‘don’t know’ (37%) than any potential candidate.

There is no doubt that Reform has fundamentally reshaped British politics, and the forces that drove its meteoric rise - including a conviction among many British voters that the mainstream parties neglect large parts of the country - remain powerful.

As the party’s leader, Farage has been able to channel this anger effectively into a fast-growing supporter base.

With Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain a growing threat on Reform's right flank and the Conservatives’ recovery offering a more moderate alternative on the left, now seems a particularly poor time to gamble with the loyalty of the party’s core voters.

And while recent allegations against Reform are unlikely to return Britain to the old two-party politics, they may well have lowered the electoral “ceiling” for Reform by dimming Farage’s star.

The veteran Brexiteer remains the only leader who can hold Reform’s base together, yet he appears to be alienating the very voters Reform needs to win over.

Sooner or later, if Reform is to stand a chance in the next election, this is a conundrum the party must find a way to solve.

Jules Walkden is Research Manager at PF Global

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