Pollsters Warn Tory Optimism Doesn't Reflect Political Reality
Polling shows the Conservatives remain below where they were at the 2024 election (Alamy)
3 min read
The mood was upbeat at Conservative Party conference, but pollsters agree the Tories have a long way to go to win again.
"When we win the next election, and we will, we are going to need to hit the ground running," leader Kemi Badenoch told Tory members on Sunday. The optimistic tone was shared by activists throughout the get-together in Birmingham.
A year ago, the Leader of the Opposition entered conference season facing questions about her leadership and how much longer it would last, with Robert Jenrick – then a defeated Conservative leadership rival, now a Reform UK MP – waiting in the wings.
Badenoch, tasked with rebuilding the party after its historic 2024 defeat, was accused of failing to cut through.
However, her personal ratings have improved markedly since then.
Badenoch's net favourability has risen by 20 per cent since September 2025, from -35 to -15, according to YouGov, while among 2024 Conservative voters it has risen from +27 to +55.
At the same time, she has strengthened her position at the top of the party, shaping it in her image.
But while Badenoch's ratings may have improved, as Ipsos' Keiran Pedley set out in a piece for The House over the weekend, the party's ratings remain stubbornly weak.
Just a quarter of Britons believe the Tories are fit to govern, Ipsos data shows. Only one in five think the party is concerned about people in real need, while more than half see it as a party that is out of date.
The Conservatives are currently hovering at around 20 per cent in voting intention polls – below the 23.7 per cent they received at the 2024 general election, when they lost over 250 seats in a historic defeat.
As pollster Sir John Curtice explained at a fringe event in Birmingham on Sunday, current polling "still leaves you [Tories] four points below what was your worst ever performance".
Luke Tryl, Executive Director at think tank More in Common, said the “killer stat” for the Conservatives is that “only a third of people who say Kemi Badenoch is doing a good job as leader of the Conservatives would vote Tory."
“That is just a huge gap,” Tryl told PoliticsHome, adding that in focus groups people often say they “wish she was in another party” so they could vote for her.
Tory peer and pollster Lord Ashcroft put it bluntly in his assessment to Tory MPs, telling a reception that while the public is coming round to Badenoch, “unfortunately, their view of the Conservative Party is taking a bit longer to catch up.
"In other words, voters like her, they’re just not convinced about the rest of you.”
Tryl said there are reasons for cautious optimism for the Tories, including data showing that the Conservatives could find themselves in a "sweet spot" where voters on the left and right tactically vote for them to keep out another party.
More in Common data shows that 30 per cent of Labour supporters would vote for a Conservative candidate to stop Reform.
Though Tryl added: “The danger is, do you end up as everyone's second choice?”
Lord Hayward, Tory peer and pollster, said the Conservatives were now doing "much better" in council by-elections, "particularly in one group of seats that is middle-class areas, where people might have been inclined towards Reform a year ago.”
Hayward is also less concerned about the gap between Badenoch’s personal ratings and the party's, telling PoliticsHome: “Historically, it's worth remembering that Conservative leaders have always had better ratings than the Conservative Party brand.
"That's just a historical fact. There being one or two exceptions, but generally that's the case.”
But, as Pedley wrote: "Some voters may be willing to listen again, but there is far less evidence they are ready to hand the Conservatives power."
