Being cautious is the riskiest thing Andy Burnham could do
4 min read
Pick any parliamentary seat in Great Britain. Cleethorpes or Caithness, Brighton or Burnley. In every single one, more people say they are worse off than a year ago than say they are better off.
Not most seats. All 631 of them. Yet at the same time, a sense of hope among voters is prevalent, reflected in new constituency-level polling we are publishing on Thursday which shows a clear ‘Burnham bounce’ in voter intention.
At 38 Degrees, working with Survation, we polled more than 8,000 people in Andy Burnham's first month as Prime Minister, and built a seat-by-seat model of the whole country. The data reveals a country that is economically exhausted, desperate for someone to step up and fix the basics, and ready to reward a PM who takes bold, decisive action.
38 Degrees is a people-powered campaign group. Our supporters come from all walks of life, every corner of the country, and vote for all parties and none. They are united by a vision for a country that is fairer, more respectful and more sustainable. And just like 38 Degrees supporters, most voters across the country agree on far more than they disagree.
The cost of living is the number one issue in every single seat. Two in three people (66 per cent) say it's one of the issues hitting them hardest. Whatever part of the country people live in, and whoever they vote for, the pressure on their household budget comes first.
Ask people what would most boost their confidence in government, and "bills coming down" comes top in all 631 seats. There's just nine points between the most and least supportive parties' voters. Ask what would help their finances most, and cutting the daily standing charge on energy bills comes top in 609 of them, with support from voters of every party.
It doesn't stop there. More than half (55 per cent) back public ownership of water, with just 11 per cent against. Two in three (66 per cent) could never afford social care costs of around £70,000 a year, whatever their income or however they vote. And, in news that politicians from across the political spectrum should take note of, 65 per cent would trust politicians more if parties worked together to fix social care. Most people say tighter rules on donations (58 per cent), MPs' second jobs (57 per cent) and lobbying (53 per cent) would also boost their trust in politics.
Focusing, and crucially, delivering on these common ground issues is a route to winning back voters Labour has lost, should Burnham choose to take it. Since 2024, Labour has lost support in both directions: to the Greens and Lib Dems, and to Reform. Picking culture war fights to win back one group will push the other further away. But lower bills, public water and a fix for social care speak to all of them. Economic issues bring people together. Social issues pull them apart.
And the stakes are high. The "Burnham bounce" is real. Labour would be the largest party on 272 seats if an election were held today. But no party is near a majority, and 200 seats would be won by less than five points. A small swing either way changes everything.
The good news for the Prime Minister is that voters want him to be bold. Seven in ten (70 per cent) say it's important for a government to be bold and willing to take radical action. That's more than the 58 per cent who value caution. And 41 per cent say a bold Labour Party would make them more likely to vote Labour, against just 18 per cent less likely.
It’s early days for this government, but patience is low amongst voters. So far, only 28 per cent say this government has been bolder than the last. Most (38 per cent) say it's been about the same.
Burnham promised change at lightning speed. The public is still willing to believe him. Lower bills, public water, cleaner politics and a fix for social care would show whose side he's on, and bring a divided country together. Right now, not one seat in Britain feels better off. Changing that is his job. Being cautious is the riskiest thing he could do.
Veronica Hawking is Campaigns Director at 38 Degrees
