The Lib Dems are not cutting through
4 min read
“I think my algorithm has decided that I don’t need Ed Davey in my life,” Hannah, a security advisor from Bermondsey, told us in a recent focus group. “The name is familiar, but other than that, he has not penetrated my algorithm at all.”
Only 3 per cent of Britons report seeing content from Davey on social media in the previous week. It’s easy to forget the Liberal Democrats are the largest third party, by seats, in over a century. They won 72 seats in 2024, around nine times as many as Reform UK now holds. Yet Britons are four times more likely to have heard from Reform recently than from the Lib Dems, and seven times more likely to have seen Nigel Farage on social media than Davey.
In fact, Britons are more likely to say they’ve heard from Restore Britain in recent months than the Liberal Democrats.
Davey’s problem is one of cut-through. The stunts which got traction in the run-up to the last general election have run their course with voters. As party leaders battle for the country’s attention, he has fallen behind.
Charlie Maynard’s resignation as Treasury spokesperson last week brought frustrations with the leader to the surface. But the dilemma is broader than Davey: only 39 per cent of Britons say they know what the party stands for, lower than any other major party, including Restore Britain.
In strategic terms, it’s the difference between building a bigger castle, or just digging a deeper moat
The party’s strength is local. In our focus group in Bermondsey, where Simon Hughes was MP for 32 years, voters said the party felt “really present”, even 11 years after he ceased being the MP. Yet as Ross, a charity officer there, told us: “I couldn’t tell you who the Lib Dem national leader is.”
This reflects what the Liberal Democrats excel at: entrenchment. In areas where they have a local presence, they tend to perform well. But without a strong national brand, entrenchment can come at the expense of expansion, and outside the leafy shires, can even mean retreat. In strategic terms, it’s the difference between building a bigger castle, or just digging a deeper moat.
The so-called “Gail’s strategy” – targeting affluent, traditionally Conservative areas – has produced results. If there’s a Gail’s or Oliver Bonas on your high street, you are seven points more likely to vote Liberal Democrat. It was actually the strongest predictor of Lib Dem support we could find.
These strategies won the party a record number of seats and may help it defend them. Some will argue Davey’s record speaks for itself, that trading a Blue Wall strategy for a national one would repeat the mistakes of 2019. If winning MPs is what matters, Davey can hardly be said to have failed.
But that leaves many what-ifs.
Being a ‘nice’ alternative to the Tories and Labour in affluent areas only works if neither has a compelling offer of its own. At Conservative Party conference, Kemi Badenoch turned her policy firepower back to the Blue Wall with childcare for high earners and inheritance tax cuts, and by attacking Reform she has made the Lib Dems' “vote Kemi, get Nigel” attack seem less plausible.
Meanwhile, Andy Burnham has opened the door to rejoining the EU, embraced electoral reform and pledged a social care overhaul: all typically Lib Dem bread and butter. Without a vision of their own, the Liberal Democrats risk being squeezed into irrelevance.
So what vision do Lib Dem voters want?
As Rob, a logistics manager in North East Hampshire, put it, good policy “might not necessarily grab the headlines, but it might show they’ve got a better understanding of what needs to change”. Like most Britons, Lib Dem voters tend to believe Britain is broken but, unlike Reform and Green voters, don’t want to shake up the system or burn it down.
Most Lib Dem voters see Reform as a threat, so Davey’s increasingly combative tone toward Farage will likely resonate. But the party also needs a clear policy agenda that sets it apart and speaks to its voters’ desire for ambitious but practical change, with liberalism at its heart.
Luke Tryl is the Executive Director of More in Common UK
